Baltimore Orioles Remain No. 1 in Key Player Development Ranking

The Baltimore Orioles remained the farm system every team in baseball is chasing even after a busy trade deadline.

h3Jul 12, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Cade Povich (37) throws a third inning pitch New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Imagine you have a farm system that is sitting on $371 million in unrealized talent. Well, then you’re the Baltimore Orioles.

ESPN re-ranked baseball’s farm systems after a busy July that include the MLB draft and the trade deadline. The Orioles’ system remained the No. 1 system in the game, even as the surplus value of its farm system dropped by $10 million from ESPN’s preseason rankings.

How did the site rank the organizations? FanGraphs calculated the surplus value. First, the site used historical data to determine what each prospect would do in the Majors if called up. Then, the system used that projection to determine what each player would make during their six controllable years as MLB players. Finally, the site added up that value to reach the surplus value for each organization.

Based on that value, the O’s are sitting on a gold mine — even after trading some key prospects at the deadline.

Most notably, Baltimore gave up a pair of highly-regarded prospects in infielder Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers to acquire Miami pitcher Trevor Rogers. Three other highly-ranked prosects were also dealt in other trades — Mac Horvath, Jackson Baumeister, Seth Johnson and Moises Chace.

ESPN points out that some of the gold has already paid off. Outfielder Colton Cowser could be in the running for American League Rookie of the Year, an award Gunnar Henderson won last season. Another outfielder, Heston Kjerstad, has been up a couple of times with the Orioles this season. Two pitchers — Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott — have made their MLB debuts, though McDermott is now on the Triple-A injured list.

As if knowing it might spend some capital, Baltimore managed to draft four players that landed in Baseball America’s organizational Top 30 after the trade deadline — first-round pick Vance Honeycutt, compensatory first-round pick Griff O'Ferrall, second-round pick Ethan Anderson and third-round pick Austin Overn.

The gap between the Orioles and the No. 2 system, the Tampa Bay Rays, is significant. The Rays’ system has a surplus value of $323 million, which was a huge jump from the $249 million value in the preseason.

Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo are part of the reason the Orioles still have a high surplus value. Holliday is back with the Orioles but still considered a prospect. Mayo was promoted recently but has plenty of time before he graduates from prospect rankings. Basallo is a 19-year-old prospect who is already at Double-A Bowie. ESPN notes the trio is among its Top 15 prospects in all of baseball and helps drive Baltimore’s surplus value.

Once that trio graduates from prospect rankings, Baltimore might finally fall. But it won’t be for awhile longer.