Baltimore Orioles Shouldn’t Expect This Outcome With Corbin Burnes Free Agency

The chances of Corbin Burnes accepting a qualifying offer seem slim for the Baltimore Orioles.

Sep 20, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a third inning pitch against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Barring anything drastic, the Baltimore Orioles should expect to have to hand over a blank check to Corbin Burnes in the offseason if they want to retain him.

The right-hander is the second most sought-after free agent on the market, and for good reason, as he's arguably been the best starter in Major League Baseball throughout the past five seasons.

While it remains unlikely that he'd have to take a one-year prove-it deal, crazier things have happened. As seen with Blake Snell last offseason, sometimes, guys have slower free agencies. 

If that's the case, the Orioles could extend Burnes a qualifying offer, which might make sense for multiple reasons. If they believe they'll lose Burnes, they could offer one to get a draft pick.

If he doesn't accept it, all Burnes would do is go to free agency, which is the expected outcome already. 

Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com explained the benefits of Baltimore and other teams offering a qualifying offer to their eligible free agents.

"Teams can extend a qualifying offer to select free agents each offseason. Players who accept are signed to a one-year deal for the next season at the designated value (set at $21.05 million for 2025). Those who don't accept remain free agents, and if a new team signs them, their old team receives Draft pick compensation."

Burnes is one of the top candidates to receive a qualifying offer, but only because it'd be smart from the Orioles' perspective. Again, the chances of him signing one are very slim.

With how he threw for Baltimore, he deserves the type of money he's in line to get. If it weren't for a couple of rough starts after the All-Star break, there's a good chance he'd be looking at his second Cy Young Award. 

"Burnes lived up to expectations after being traded from the Brewers to the Orioles in the offseason, earning his fourth straight All-Star selection and finishing with a 2.92 ERA and 181 strikeouts over 194 1/3 innings. The 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner has posted a 2.88 ERA over the past five seasons, ranking third in the Majors with 816 2/3 innings in that span."

For only $21.05 million, even if he were to sign a one-year deal, the chances of that being more expensive than the qualifying offer are high.

The Orioles would benefit significantly from his market not being as high as predicted. Still, if that's the case, the better idea would be to sign him to a long-term deal for a lower price than initially expected.

If, for some reason, he were to return on a qualifying offer, it wouldn't be the worst outcome.