Baltimore Orioles Star Rookie May Not Be as Big of Award Favorite as Odds Suggest

A Baltimore Orioles rookie is a sizable favorite for some hardware this season, but the race is closer than it would seem.

Aug 24, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday (7) celebrates with outfielder Colton Cowser (17) after the game against the Houston Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles have consistently been near the top of the MLB standings throughout the 2024 season. A big reason for that is the production they have received from younger players on the team.

One of their standout youngsters this season has been outfielder Colton Cowser. The rookie has regularly been productive at the plate, recording a slash line of .245/.324/.443 in 133 games played with 484 plate appearances.

He has been a good source of power with 21 doubles and 20 home runs, adding two triples. With 68 runs scored and 62 RBI, he has been a consistent source of offense for the Orioles all season.

His advanced stats are also elite. An average exit velocity of 90.6 miles per hour and a hard hit percentage of 47 percent are both above league average. Same with his Rbat+ and OPS+ of 116 and 121, respectively.

But, where he makes his biggest impact is in the field.

Given the adjustments that were made with the dimensions at Camden Yards, some center field-type range is needed from all three outfielders. Cowser, who has played a majority of his innings in the gigantic left field, is capable of that.

He has been elite for Baltimore this season defensively, which plays as big of a part as any in his Rookie of the Year candidacy.

Given how many things he has done well this season, it should come as no surprise that he is the favorite for the American League Rookie of the Year Award. The question is, should he be?

Based on information shared by Bradford Doolittle of ESPN, a strong case could be made that Cowser should not be as big of a favorite in the AL ROY race, and potentially not a favorite at all.

Cowser comes in at No. 7 among the AL rookies this season in AXE with a 110.3. In first place is New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells with an AXE of 115.7.

“The betting markets have tabbed Cowser as the favorite for a few weeks now, though the metrics that feed the AXE algorithm have never agreed with that assessment. You can understand it, though, because this race has never had a clear front-runner at any point. Cowser has had an excellent season. He has played a lot and he has done so for a team angling for a No. 1 seed. Regardless of what the metrics say, it's hard to envision who might distinguish themselves from Cowser at this point. A monster September from Wells or Gil, who was just reinstated from the injured list, could swing things. This is the one category in which AXE currently disagrees with ESPN BET,” Doolittle wrote.

The ROY Award is the only one that team success doesn’t always play a part. But, in 2024, that could be the determining factor for some voters.

Whoever finishes on top of the AL East could be where people send their votes. The one thing working in Cowser’s favor in that regard is that he doesn’t have another teammate battling it out with him as Wells has with starting pitcher Luis Gil.

Based on Doolittle’s numbers, the value just isn’t there for Cowser as the Rookie of the Year. But, what he brings to the table for the Orioles as a legitimate two-way player could push him ahead.