Did The Baltimore Orioles Pay Too Much in Latest Trade?

The Baltimore Orioles may have just made their biggest splash so far, but was it too much?

Jul 21, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Trevor Rogers (28) delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the first inning at loanDepot Park. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles have been busy in front of this year's deadline, already making moves to acquire Zach Eflin, Seranthony Dominguez and Christian Pache. On Tuesday, though, they made their biggest move, trading for Trevor Rogers from the Miami Marlins, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Rogers has been about a league average pitcher this season in his 21 starts. The lefty has thrown 105.1 innings to the tune of a 4.53 ERA with 86 strikeouts, a 7.3 K/9. However, his last two seasons of 20 or more starts have not been anything to write home about. In 2022, when he made 23 starts, Rogers posted a 5.47 ERA in 107 innings.

His career year was his rookie season in 2021, when he finished runner up in Rookie of the Year voting and was an All-Star, when he had a 2.64 ERA and a 10.6 K/9 in 133 innings. Yet, he just hasn't been that same guy since, especially with his strikeouts down a few ticks in his last two seasons over 100 innings.

The reason the deal may be seen as an overpay is because of what Baltimore gave up. Fansided's Robert Murray reported that Connor Norby would be sent to Miami, with MLB.com's Mark Feinsand including that Kyle Stowers is being traded, as well.

Norby, a second baseman and outfielder, was the fifth prospect in the Orioles system according to MLB Pipeline and spent time in the big leagues this season. In his nine games with the Orioles, he struggled to find his footing with just two home runs and a .594 OPS with 12 strikeouts.

His minor league numbers have been much better and go to show why he's so well regarded. In 80 games at Triple-A, Norby was hitting .297 with a .908 OPS, 16 home runs, 21 doubles and 57 RBIs. His small sample size in the big leagues wasn't nearly enough to make a big statement on his future, so there is still a lot of excitment surrounding him.

Kyle Stowers, another former top prospect, had played well in his 19 games in Baltimore. He had a .797 OPS with five extra base hits, and his power numbers had been even better at Triple-A. With a .500 slugging percentage, he had hit 18 home runs and 16 doubles. He has the potential to be a solid power hitting outfielder.

So, did the Orioles pay too much for Rogers? It could be argued that they did, though there are plenty of reasons they paid what they did. For one, it adds a left handed pitcher to a righty heavy rotation. He has shown he could be a big strikeout pitcher in the past, and Baltimore will hope that they can tap back into his 2021 form.

He is also just 26-years-old and has plenty of control left, not being a free agent until 2027. Those couple years of control left are another reason why they had to pay a lot, because control is valuable and Baltimore wants to continue to build their team for the next few years.

In all, it's not fair to say that the Orioles paid too much. Most of the baseball world had been clamoring for them to make a big move because they have such a good depth of hitters at the minor league level and won't have the room to use them all. So, they did that without having to give up one of their Top 100 prospects and still have plenty of bats ready to go.