‘Expect’ Baltimore Orioles Star Free Agent To Eclipse $36 Million AAV in Next Deal

The Baltimore Orioles starter could get more money than New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.

Sep 8, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

Despite struggling a bit since the All-Star break, Corbin Burnes has started to figure it out again in recent starts.

He's allowed just four earned runs over his last five starts and threw seven innings of three-hit baseball against the Detroit Tigers on Friday. The right-hander struck out eight and didn't give up an earned run.

If the Baltimore Orioles are going to be the team they're expected to be in the postseason, the California native will play a big factor in that.

Burnes is arguably the best arm in Major League Baseball, and when they traded for him in the offseason last year, the expectation and hope was for him to be the ace-caliber pitcher they needed in October when it mattered most. 

While it'll be good and well if he does pitch to his standards, there's also an elephant in the room that the Orioles can't ignore.

The 29-year-old hits the open market this winter and is expected to get a contract north of $250 million. It's uncertain if Baltimore will be willing to give him that type of money, but if they're looking to continue finding success, keeping him around seems to be the logical thing to do. 

It'll be interesting to see the contract he lands, especially regarding years and average annual value.

Could he be looking at $40 million per year?

Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report seems to think it's possible, writing that it should be expected that he eclipses the $36 million that New York Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole makes.

"If there is any doubt about who the top starting pitcher on the market is this coming offseason, consider for a moment the fact that Corbin Burnes is a full four years younger than Gerrit Cole, making him a far more attractive target for a long-term deal... Expect him to try to eclipse the $36 million AAV that Cole received in his deal with the Yankees, and he should have a long line of suitors this winter."

When Cole hit free agency, he was likely the better arm. However, that doesn't take away from what Burnes has done, and it's also important to note that contracts go up every year.

Because of that, the Orioles have to understand that this is how much an ace-caliber arm costs.

Perhaps they look to make a trade for a younger and cheaper pitcher, but there's no guarantee they'll find anybody nearly as good as what they currently have in Burnes.

They also have to factor in that they need to start paying guys at some point, whether right now or in a few years.

Money eventually has to be spent.