Interesting Stat Shows Positive Sign for Baltimore Orioles World Series Chances

The Baltimore Orioles will need history to repeat itself in their pursuit of a World Series.

Aug 20, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Anthony Santander (25) is greeted by shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) after hitting a two-run home run in the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles have a tough road ahead of them during the next week, taking on the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers. They dropped the first game of their four-game set against the Astros 6-0.

Right in the mix to win the American League East, the Orioles have to start playing better. Their 4-6 record in their last 10 games at this point in the year isn't going to cut it, but it's tough to blame them too much, given some of the injuries they've dealt with. 

While it's been an ugly few weeks for this ball club, one thing has helped Baltimore. Their ability to hit home runs has saved the season in some ways, and it'll need to continue for them to find success.

A home run or bust approach doesn't always favor teams. However, David Schoenfield of ESPN showed the importance of doing so, and it favors the Orioles.

"Some like to say this homer-heavy approach doesn't work in the postseason, but that's nonsense. You win in the postseason by hitting home runs, and hitting more of them than your opponents.

"The Rangers scored 52.6% of their runs last postseason via the home run. In 2022, the Astros scored 58.5% of their postseason runs via the home run. If anything, hitting home runs becomes more important in October."

Baltimore leads baseball with 195 home runs. They're also third in the league in percentage of runs scored via a home run, according to Schoenfield.

If history repeats itself, the Orioles would be on the right side of it. However, there's missed context to that stat. Houston's pitching staff typically threw well in October, while the Texas Rangers had a few guys step up in big moments in 2023.

If they manage to get healthy before the postseason, as much as possible, Baltimore has arms in their rotation and bullpen who can shut teams down. The issue, however, is that they're without three starters for the remainder of the campaign and Corbin Burnes hasn't pitched well in recent weeks.

It'll be difficult to hit their way to a World Series, especially with how home-run-driven they are, but it's also possible that the Orioles get hot for a month and do so.

That'll all be figured out soon, as the regular season only has about a month left in it. Once that finishes, Baltimore will need to prove to the baseball world that they're a legitimate contending team and can win when it matters most.