Orioles Ace Lands Favorable Contract in Latest MLB Free Agency Prediction

The Baltimore Orioles wouldn't have an excuse to keep Corbin Burnes around if this contract prediction comes true.

Sep 20, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a third-inning pitch against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Around the industry, the common theme remains that Corbin Burnes won't return to the Baltimore Orioles.

From the Orioles' perspective, this would be a tough loss, as he was the best arm they've had in a very long time. 

If Baltimore wants to bring him back, they already know how much he's likely looking for. Free agency is open, but that doesn't mean they don't have a deal working for him.

For a starter of his status, there wouldn't be much of a reason to take a deal in the first week of the winter. Burnes knows what he's doing, and although this is the first time in his career he's hit the open market, he knows his worth. 

The Orioles' question is now whether they're willing to give him that type of money, as he's proven to be the ace-caliber pitcher they need. 

Predictions for the California native have been all over the place. Some have suggested he could be looking at just $200 million, while others have predicted him to get closer to $300 million.

In the latest column from Tim Britton of The Athletic, Burnes landed a $217 million deal over seven years.

"Traded to the Orioles last winter, Burnes delivered ace-level performance for his new team. He ranked third in the American League in innings, fourth in ERA and 10th in strikeouts. He should see his name on Cy Young ballots for the fifth straight season, and he’s the best pitcher on the open market. That said, Burnes’ once-brilliant strikeout rate has fallen in each of the last four years. When the right-hander won the Cy Young with Milwaukee in 2021, he struck out hitters 50 percent more often than the average pitcher. This past year, he struck out hitters two percent more often than the average pitcher. His trademark cutter doesn’t move with the same bite or generate as many swings-and-misses as it did when he was at his best."

That's a decent price to pay for Baltimore, but it wouldn't be something they couldn't give out.

If the Orioles truly want the right-hander back, that's more than fair to pay him.

This prediction would be much lower than others, and perhaps Britton knows what's happening around the industry. If they could land him around that number, there aren't any excuses for the front office not to get a deal done.

Baltimore needs him, and that's about as good of a price as they'll find for an arm of his caliber.