Recent Prediction Would Be Worst Outcome for Baltimore Orioles in MLB Free Agency

The Baltimore Orioles will have to hope this doesn't happen in MLB free agency.

Oct 2, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Max Fried (54) throws during the first inning of game two in the Wildcard round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

It'd be unfair to judge the Baltimore Orioles instantly if Corbin Burnes departs for a different club in MLB free agency. While that wouldn't be ideal and would certainly be disappointing, the Orioles would still have other ways to improve.

The issue with losing Burnes isn't because of the prospects they sent for him, as they landed him in a somewhat favorable deal.

However, when Baltimore traded for him last winter, it was because they needed an ace-caliber arm. Not only was Burnes exactly that, but there isn't one pitcher in their current rotation who looks like they could become that in the future.

Factor that in with the impossible chance of finding a pitcher who could do what he does on the open market, and it's easy to see where this could be bad for the Orioles.

They've been linked to a few other arms, and some are even elite. However, Burnes is a top-five pitcher in the world, and unless they land a guy like Paul Skenes or two or three others, replacing him isn't possible.

Among the players they've been linked to include Max Fried. Fried has dealt with a few injuries in recent campaigns but when he's on the bump and healthy, he's among the best in Major League Baseball.

He's expected to get a massive deal, too, somewhere around the $150-plus million ballpark.

If they replaced Fried with Burnes, they wouldn't be as good on the mound, but the drop-off wouldn't be the biggest deal if others were added.

The issue, however, is that if they lose Burnes and don't sign Fried, there aren't many other places to go.

That's why Jim Bowden of The Athletic's latest prediction would be the worst outcome for Baltimore.

"The Mets focus on starting pitching in free agency and manage to sign both Corbin Burnes and Max Fried to long-term contracts while also bringing back first baseman Pete Alonso, dropping more than half a billion in future salary commitments to land the trio."

That isn't an unrealistic situation, either, as many around the industry believe that Steve Cohen will spend as much money as he needs to this offseason to put together a competent team. If he has to spend nearly $400 million for two starters, that's what he'll do.

Ultimately, the Orioles will have a ton of competition this winter. Unless they're willing to spend with the best of them, things could get very tricky.