Will Baltimore Orioles Slugger Get Overpriced Contract in Free Agency?

It's entirely possible that one Baltimore Orioles free agent will end up with a contract that overpays him this offseason.

Sep 25, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Anthony Santander (25) follows through on an RBI double against the New York Yankees during the fourth inning at Yankee Stadium. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Orioles are heading into free agency with a couple of their players as the best on the market. 

This offseason is going to be a challenging one for the Orioles, as after a great campaign in 2024, their roster might look much different in 2025. 

With both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander being free agents this offseason, Baltimore could lose their best starting pitcher and their best home run hitter. With Blake Snell off the market, Burnes is certainly the best starter available now, if he wasn’t already before. 

For Santander, he is coming off a career-year in which he totaled 44 home runs. Compared to the rest of the free-agent position players, the slugger had the most home runs last year. 

Both players are surely to have plenty of suitors, as they can both bring a lot to the table. However, Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report recently highlighted that Santander might be overpaid this offseason, and broke down why that could be the case. 

“If he's homering 35 times and driving in 90 runs, he can make a big impact," he wrote. "But if he becomes a 25-homer guy later in this contract and still isn't getting on base at a particularly high clip, this deal might not age well. We've projected a five-year, $101 million deal for Santander, and any team that signs him other than the Orioles would have to give up draft compensation since he declined a qualifying offer from Baltimore.”

Paying a player coming off the best year of their career generally isn’t good practice in free agency. However, while Santander might not be a 40-home run hitter ever again in his career, he seems like he should be able to be in the 30s for the next few years. 

Furthermore, if a team is going to be paying him to be a premier home run hitter like he was in 2024, the margin for error is slim, and he has the potential to be a bust and overpaid. 

For the Orioles or whichever team ends up signing the talented switch-hitter, they should be focused more on his average power from the last three years compared to the career-year in 2024. While Santander could be a great fit for a lot of teams, the price has to be right for the slugger.