NLDS Preview: Three Keys to Watch in the Padres-Dodgers Series

Can Los Angeles avenge its 2022 NLDS loss?

Shohei Ohtani and Manny Machado will meet in the NLDS. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

This year's MLB division series is overflowing with intriguing regional rivalries, including a battle between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers and a showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

However, none of those teams have played each other in the postseason. This will be the third playoff series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in the past five years, and it will be a doozy—the Padres finished just five games back of the first-place Dodgers in the NL West, the narrowest gap between the two teams in any of this round's matchups.

Los Angeles swept San Diego in the 2020 NLDS, but the Padres scored a measure of revenge with a four-game victory in the 2022 NLDS. The rubber match is set to commence Saturday, with San Diego pitcher Dylan Cease toeing the rubber against the Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Here's a look at three story lines to keep an eye on in what figures to be a closely watched series.

1. What Will the Dodgers' Rotation Look Like?

Los Angeles has spent much of 2024 piecing together a rotation with duct tape. Seventeen different pitchers made starts for the Dodgers this season (for a point of comparison, the Padres used just eight starting pitchers). Injuries have been the primary culprit for Los Angeles's instability, and many accounts of the Dodgers' pitching woes neglect the fact that the team's best hurler—designated hitter Shohei Ohtani—isn't pitching this season.

All told, Los Angeles carries a relatively high 3.90 team ERA into the postseason (the Padres' is 3.86). That is actually a decrease from last year but still nowhere in the neighborhood of 2020's 3.02 team ERA or 2.80 in '22.

Yamamoto is scheduled to go in Game 1, with trade-deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty to follow. After that, things get extremely murky. Don't be surprised if Dodgers manager Dave Roberts embraces a piecemeal approach better suiting the Tigers; this is a man who gave relief pitcher Ryan Brasier three September starts as an opener, after all.

2. Is Padres Rookie Sensation Jackson Merrill Ready for Prime Time?

Early evidence would suggest the answer to this question is yes. In San Diego's wild-card series against the Atlanta Braves, the All-Star center fielder went 3-for-7 with a double and a triple.

Is there an element of unfairness in placing this level of expectations on a 21-year-old rookie? Of course, his veteran teammates need to perform as well. Right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. needs to take his wild-card momentum up to Chavez Ravine, third baseman Manny Machado needs to be his usual future Hall of Fame self, and it sure would help if catcher Kyle Higashioka keeps up his career year.

But look on Baseball Reference, and there in the column depicting the Padres' year-by-year WAR leaders is Merrill—with a solid-for-anyone, terrific-for-a-rookie 4.4 next to his name. Fellow rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio stepped up for the Milwaukee Brewers in their wild-card series loss, hitting .455 with two home runs. If Merrill can do anything remotely similar, San Diego will be in business.

3. What Should We Expect in Shohei Ohtani's Postseason Debut?

It is being egregiously under-marketed, but Los Angeles designated hitter Shohei Ohtani's arrival in the postseason is a capital E Event to rival any North American playoff debut of this century—think young Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James's first postseason appearance in 2006.

After years of toiling on miserable Los Angeles Angels teams, Ohtani joined the Dodgers this offseason and put up the following statline: .310/.390/.646 with 54 home runs, 130 RBIs, and 59 stolen bases. At 30, he is well within striking distance of metrics associated with automatic Hall of Fame entry.

How will Ohtani fare in this brave new world? Evidence suggests just fine. In 55 plate appearances over 12 games against the Padres, the superstar slashed .326/.400/.522 with a home run and seven RBIs.

What might be most compelling about Ohtani's debut is the fact that he is almost certain to face one of the greatest Japanese pitchers in history—and his teammate on Japan's 2023 World Baseball Classic-winning team—in Yu Darvish. Darvish is scheduled to start Game 2 of the NLDS, having gone 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 78 strikeouts this season.

Ohtani, who told reporters in March that he modeled his game around Darvish, has just one hit in five plate appearances vs. the two-time Cy Young runner-up lifetime. Fans around the world will be watching their battles closely.

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