Manny Machado's Recovery Could Affect the Start of His 2024 Season: Report

The slugger had elbow surgery in October, possibly delaying his next game at third base.

Any delays to Manny Machado's return to action in 2024 should come as little surprise. When the Padres' star third baseman underwent elbow surgery in October, he was reportedly given a 4-6 month timetable for recovery. 

On the early end of that timetable, Machado would be healthy by the end of January. On the late end, he would need until the end of March. That was always going to be a possible cause for concern, given that the Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers were due to open their regular season 10 days sooner than every other team, March 20-21 in Seoul, South Korea.

The knockdown effects of Machado's recovery might even engulf the front office's plans to reshape the Padres' roster.

According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Machado might be limited to designated hitter duties at the outset of the regular season. That has some interesting implications for the team's infield situation. 

Writes Lin:

[Ha-Seong] Kim and [Jake] Cronenworth present an interesting contrast as candidates for relocation. Trading Kim this offseason would be selling high and, perhaps, selling prudently; Kim is entering his final year before free agency, and extending or re-signing the Gold Glove Award winner likely would require a nine-figure deal. Trading Cronenworth at the start of his seven-year, $80 million extension would be selling at the nadir of his value. Neither option is attractive — besides his popularity with fans, Kim could supply major surplus value in a contract year — but the Padres’ roster construction figures to remain wonky as long as both infielders stay on the team.

At one point this off-season, the Padres were reportedly interested in trading Cronenworth. Although he is not a natural first baseman (a fact reflected in his Outs Above Average last season), Cronenworth is one of only three left-handed hitters on the Padres' 40-man roster.

Lin goes on to note that trading Cronenworth would rob the team of one possible solution to their woes against right-handed pitching that contributed to their overall struggles in 2023. Other than Soto, the Padres combined for a .686 OPS against righties last year.

Still, it's interesting to consider that Machado's timetable to return to the field could be linked to the timing of a trade involving one or more major league infielders. Writes Lin:

Machado’s rehabilitation from elbow extensor tendon repair surgery could buy the Padres some time. The third baseman might not be ready to play defense by late March, and it just so happens Kim has significant experience at Machado’s position. With the Padres in need of solutions at designated hitter, Machado might be a temporary answer during the opening weeks of the season. 

To the extent the elbow injury impaired Machado's 2023 performance, it didn't jump off the stat sheet. He hit 30 home runs, drove in 91, and reduced his strikeout rate compared to 2022 (20.7 percent to 18.1). 

Yet Machado's OBP, slugging percentage and OPS fell last season compared to 2022, when he finished second in National League MVP voting. Although batted-ball luck seemed to play a part in his 2023 falloff (his BABIP was a career-low .268), no one would be surprised if the elbow injury affected Machado's potency in the batter's box too.

Machado's recovery from the extensor tendon repair will certainly affect his thowing ability, too. The Padres will be wise to give him the time and space he needs to recover, even if that means missing his electric skill at third base for a time.