Padres Projected to Finish 4th in NL West: Report

The Padres are projected to finish three games below .500 in 2024.

The San Diego Padres are entering the 2024 season with less hype than they've enjoyed in recent seasons. The tide has shifted. The Padres didn't win the offseason, they aren't expected to reach the postseason, and talk of "keeping up" with their division rivals has gone silent. 

Now, they aren't even expected to finish with a winning record, according to one prominent outlet.

In an offseason of cutting costs, San Diego lost some key players and didn't sign any significant domestic free agents. Because of that, PECOTA predicts the Friars will finish in fourth place in the National League West. 

Baseball Prospectus' proprietary prediction tool pegs the Padres with 79.7 wins and 82.3 losses, good for fourth place in the division. The teams ahead of the Friars are the San Francisco, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Los Angeles Dodgers. 

PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus' projection system for player and team performance. They also give the Friars a 0.1% chance of winning their division, a 26.3% chance at an NL Wild Card berth, and a 26.4% chance at making the playoffs. 

The odds aren't favoring San Diego. Nonetheless, the Padres still have Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and a new manager in Mike Shildt. 

Regardless of what the numbers say, that's why you play the course of the 162 games. The Padres might not be as sexy on paper as before, but the underdog status might suit them better. Some players and teams perform better when nothing is expected from them, as compared to the immense expectations the Padres faced this time a year ago. 

A new year brings new hope. The Padres can show they are a new and reloaded team in 2024, regardless of what the projections have in store.