Padres Rumors: Juan Soto Primed to Break Arbitration Contract Record This Offseason

Will he do it?

Superstar outfielder Juan Soto could break a record set by Shohei Ohtani last year. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Soto could sign a deal worth $33 million this offseason in his final year of arbitration. Ohtani set the record in 2022 by signing a $30 million arbitration deal. The rumors of the club trying to lower payroll next year may jeopardize their ability to keep Soto.

Even before this deal, the Padres have around $171 million on the books for 2024. Multiple media outlets, including CBS Sports and MLB trade rumors, claim that the Padres want to keep the team salary around $200 million next year. If Soto breaks the record, then the team would already be over $200 million and have only 13 players salaried. 

In arbitration, both sides present what they believe the value of the player to be, and an independent arbiter renders a decision on one of the two presented contracts. A player can lose a maximum of 20% of their previous contract in arbitration. It is possible that he signs a deal for a lesser amount, but that is highly unlikely given his production at the plate this past year. He certainly outperformed his $23 million contract last year, making a raise nearly inevitable.

If the rumors of trying to lower payroll are true, then trading Soto might be the best option. With a full year left of team control the Padres could receive a haul of top prospects for Soto. Every game that goes by, the return package on a potential trade lowers. 

Signing Soto and wanting to lower payroll hamstrings what the club can do to fill out the rest of the roster. The Padres have some important decisions to make in the upcoming days as they get set to make a run at a championship in 2024.