Don't Expect Padres to Make Splash in Free Agency: Report

That big move the front office has been saving up for? It might not exist.

This has been a very unusual offseason for the San Diego Padres compared to recent years. Their projected Opening Day payroll has increased each of the last five offseasons. Now, true to expectations, the organization is taking a major step back.

Between Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Trent Grisham, that's $81.9 million in 2023 salaries that won't be on the books in 2024. Only two major league free agents, Japanese reliever Yuki Matsui and Korean reliever Woo-Suk Go, have signed with San Diego since last season ended.

The Padres' competitive balance tax payroll rose from 28th in Major League Baseball in 2017 to second in 2021. That was before they traded for Soto in Aug. 2022. Their hopes of competing for a World Series title fell short, and now they are left holding the bill with a dissatisfying aftertaste. 

USA Today's Bob Nightengale believes the Padres' big spending is over. The front office has already shed millions from the player payroll, and Nightengale reports only $20 million remains in the team's offseason budget. His exact prediction:

9. Padres will stay quiet

"The San Diego Padres’ wild spending days are over. They don’t offer anyone more than $5 million a year the rest of the winter, trying to spread out the remaining $20 million in their budget to fill about six different positions. Their World Series aspirations have melted into the goal of merely qualifying as a wild-card contender."

Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today

The front office went all-in to build one of baseball's most talented teams on paper despite playing in baseball's fourth-smallest market. Last year, they reportedly requested (and were prepared to receive) a $100 million loan to cover their payroll but MLB approved only half of the amount.  

Now, the Padres must sit in the back seat of the car instead of the driver's seat. Fans aren't happy about it, though – as CEO Erik Greupner is quick to point out — the team still possesses solid talent on its major league roster. 

San Diego's lack of aggressiveness has cost multiple players via in free agency, and Soto and Grisham via trade. The roster looks different than it did when the 2023 season ended, but that could end up being a good thing.

The lack of free-agent spending might allow young players play more, and establish their talent now, while also offering a glimpse of the future. The rival Los Angeles Dodgers were in a similar position this past season, and it seemed to work out well for them in the regular season.

If the Padres can at least reach the postseason in 2024, it will count as a step forward from a disappointing 2023.