After Slashing Nearly $90 Million in Payroll, The Padres Have Basically Clinched a Playoff Spot

J.P. Hoornstra | Sep 20, 2024

Sep 17, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (13) celebrates with center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) after hitting a two-run home run against the Houston Astros during the sixth inning at Petco Park. / Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

In his weekly appearance on the Ben And Woods Show on 97.3-FM in San Diego, Padres manager Mike Shildt said the team has not begun to hold meetings in preparation for the postseason. They haven't clinched a thing yet.

Technically, Shildt is right. On a practical level, it's time to plan the clinching celebration.

With nine games left in the regular season — including three against the 117-loss Chicago White Sox beginning today at home — the Padres will be difficult to eliminate in the National League Wild Card race.

As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune noted in his most recent newsletter, San Diego can go 5-4 the rest of the way and still eliminate the Atlanta Braves, the first team on the outside looking in on the Wild Card picture.

The Mets (85-68) are two games ahead of the Braves (83-70) going into Friday's games.

“We’re going to prepare for everybody just like it’s Game 7 of the World Series,” Shildt said this week. “That takes care of everything.”

The idea that a winning mindset can overcome raw talent is a bit idealistic. At least in the Padres' case, there's something to be said for how they got here.

A year ago, when they missed the playoffs by two games, the Padres ran a franchise-record $256 million player payroll, per Spotrac. This year, the number is down to $167.2 million. It isn't hard to figure where the savings has come from.

The trade that sent Juan Soto to the New York Yankees last December helped; Soto's $23 million salary immediately came off the books. Jackson Merrill ($740,000) and Jurickson Profar ($2.5 million, including bonuses) has proven to be capable replacements in the outfield at a fraction of the cost.

The contracts of closer Josh Hader and ace Blake Snell came off the books after last season as well when neither was retained in free agency. But Robert Suarez and Dylan Cease have stepped into those roles with aplomb. They'll make $18 million combined this season, some $12 million less than Snell and Hader were owed last year.

After some early bumps, the Padres' best-paid players have been some of their best in September.

Yu Darvish ($16 million), Many Machado ($17 million) and Joe Musgrove ($20 million) all battled injuries in the first half; Machado played while suffering the effects of offseason elbow surgery that limited him to a held him to a .409 slugging percentage through July 10. Since then, he's slugging .600, with 17 homers in 56 games.

The Padres haven't clinched a playoff berth, but time is running out for the teams that hold even a prayer of knocking them out. Considering the pessimistic tenor of their salary-slashing offseason, it's a remarkable turnaround.