Are the Padres the Favorite Over the Dodgers for Roki Sasaki?

Valentina Martinez | Dec 7, 2024

Mar 20, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Japan starting pitcher Roki Sasaki (14) delivers a pitch during the first inning against Mexico at LoanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Baseball fans are anxious and eager to know where highly-touted free agent outfielder Juan Soto will land. Although Soto is poised to earn a landmark deal, there's another star who has emerged as a popular headline this offseason: Roki Sasaki.

Unlike Soto, Sasaki won't be earning a massive contract since he will be joining stateside baseball as an international amateur free agent. It's a similar route to the one Shohei Ohtani took less than a decade ago.

At the time of Ohtani's arrival, the Los Angeles Angels were able to sign the superstar for just $2.3 million, a sum of money that came from the organization's international bonus pool. Like Ohtani, Sasaki will be looking to sign a modest contract based on whatever a team can offer from their international bonus pool.

When it comes to possible teams to land the Japanese phenom, two clubs have emerged as favorites: The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. But the biggest question is this: Which team has the upper hand in the Sasaki sweepstakes?

For many weeks, the Dodgers were speculated to be the outright favorite. Some MLB executives even went as far to say that the Dodgers already had an unwritten deal with Sasaki.

The rumors reached its boiling point when Sasaki's agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, had to publicly deny the allegations. Since then, reports have shown the Padres have a strong chance to land Sasaki.

Jon Heyman shared his insight as Sasaki's looming decision nears. The biggest takeaway from Heyman's analysis was that the MLB insider is thoroughly convinced the Padres have a genuine chance to land the 23-year-old pitcher.

The Padres have a 'real shot' at Roki Sasaki, per @JonHeyman 👀 pic.twitter.com/Ho6zLyuTNP

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) December 4, 2024

"I think the Padres have a real shot at Sasaki," Heyman said. "I know a lot of people favored the Dodgers right from the start. I do believe that the Padres are a threat in that case. I've heard that Sasaki very much admires Yu Darvish and that gives the Padres some sincere hope to land Sasaki. I think those are still the two favorites. Everybody would want a 23-year-old pitcher, superstar, throws 102 mph. Any team would want him, but I think those are the favorites. I'm going to say the Padres have a little bit more of a chance than I thought previously."