Can Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. Hit 500 Career Home Runs?

Sam Garcia | Aug 23, 2024

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Fernando Tatis Jr. has established himself as one of the Padres’ most powerful batters, racking up 14 home runs across 80 games this season. If it were not for a right femoral stress reaction that has sidelined the two-time MLB All-Star since June 21, it is likely he could have finished the season leading the team in home runs. 

Even though Tatis Jr. has been absent from the plate for more than a month, falling nearly 40 games behind the Padres’ co-leaders Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar, he is still only five home runs behind the leading pair. Before sustaining the likely season-ending injury, Tatis Jr.’s 14 homers led the Padres.

FOX Sports’ Deesha Thosar assessed 18 active power hitters in the Major Leagues, predicting whether or not they would reach the 500 career home run mark, a feat only 28 MLB players have achieved. The most recent addition was Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera in 2021. The newest member of the 500 club retired last season with a total of 511 career home runs. 

Out of the 18 power hitters, two Padres were highlighted, including Tatis Jr. and the Padres' current home run co-leader, Machado. Both San Diego hitters were given “50/50” odds of eventually joining the 500-club. While 32-year-old Macado has accumulated 332 career homers, 25-year-old Tatis Jr. has logged 120. 

Tatis is averaging 24 home runs per season, but that is including three seasons (2019, 2020, 2024) that the right fielder played in less than 100 games. He did not play in any games in 2022, but that season was not included when calculating his average home runs per season. 

In just the 2021 season, Tatis hit a third of his career home runs (42). Based solely on the 2021 and 2023 seasons, he averaged 33.5 home runs. For Tatis, the main obstacle in the way of joining the prestigious 500-club is injuries. Every season that he has been limited to 100 games, except 2020 when he was sent to Estrella Orientales, was due to injury. He's also served a PED supension, supressing his career home run total.

Back in 2021, Tatis Jr. signed a 14-year deal with the Padres. Now with a decade remaining in his contract, the young star still has a while to achieve 500 career home runs.

However, if he chooses to retire immediately after the expiration of his contract, he would have hit an average of 38 home runs per season to meet the 500-mark, which is very unlikely. He has only hit at least 38 homers once in five seasons.