Can Padres' Manny Machado Hit 500 Career Home Runs?

Jeremy Hanna | Aug 21, 2024

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (13) lines out to end the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports / Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

While a plethora of achievements are recognized in Major League Baseball, few records get more attention than career home run totals. The 500-home run club is the pinnacle of exclusivity in this category.

This prestigious group only has 28 members, with the most recent member, Miguel Cabrera, joining in 2021.

Recently, Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees hit his 300th home run, prompting many people, including Yankees teammate Juan Soto, to wonder if he could make it into the 500-home run club.

In response, Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports released a ranking of 18 current players who have a chance of entering the exclusive club. Her list included multiple recognizable names, including Judge, Soto, Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, and Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres.

Currently, Machado is tied with Philadelphia Phillies icon Bryce Harper at 332 total home runs, and he's only three months older than the star first baseman. Still, Thosar ranks Harper as "likely" while only ranking Machado as "50/50."

"Machado is only three months older than Harper, and they're essentially tied on the career home run list," Thosar writes. "While Harper is more of a pure power hitter and seems likelier than Machado to hit the 500 mark, the Padres third baseman could be a sneaky pick to join the club thanks to his consistency year after year."

"Machado, like others in this category, would need to keep up that consistency for roughly seven more seasons, and it's tough to tell how durable he'll be into his mid-30s."

Since joining the Padres, Machado has averaged 26 home runs a season, with a low of 16 and a high 32. Currently sitting at 19 home runs, Machado is more than likely to hit that average with 36 games left in the season.

If he does, this means he would have 161 left before he makes it to the 500 mark. Assuming he maintains the average, it would take about seven years to reach that total.

While this consistency is questionable given his age, Machado signed an 11-year contract extension with the Padres in 2023. This gives him nine more years, and a little bit more wiggle room, to reach 500 home runs.

Machado wasn't the only Padres player mentioned in the ranking. Fernando Tatís Jr. also made the list, who currently sits at 120 home runs and only 25 years of age.

More Padres: Ha-Seong Kim's MRI Results Are In, San Diego Rules Him Out For Series Opener