How Does MLB's Playoff Tiebreaker Format Affect the Padres?

Valentina Martinez | Sep 13, 2024

Sep 4, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11) hands the ball the manager Mike Shildt as he leaves the game during the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

As the regular season comes to a close, the San Diego Padres' place in the playoff picture remains uncertain. Each and every game is important as time runs out.

There are currently four National League teams fighting for a wild-card spot: the Padres (82-65), the Atlanta Braves (79-67), the New York Mets (80-66), and the Arizona Diamondbacks (82-64). Entering the Padres' game against the San Francisco Giants on Friday, the quartet was separated by three games in the standings. Only the top three will earn a spot in the postseason.

The last few months have been centered around chasing down the Los Angeles Dodgers for their lead in the NL West race. Being 5.5 games behind the Dodgers, the Padres are now pivoting their focus to clinching a wild-card spot.

If the playoffs began today, San Diego, the Diamondbacks, and the Mets would get a wild-card spot. The Braves are currently one game behind.

The worst-case scenario for San Diego would be to finish the season with the same record as the Mets. If the two were tied for the final seed, the first tiebreaker would be their head-to-head record. The Mets would clinch the playoff berth since they've won five of the last seven games against the Padres.

The Padres are 4-3 against Atlanta, while the final series with Arizona will determine their head-to-head record — and who would win the tiebreaker.

A three-way tie would put even more pressure on the Padres to win their final series with the Diamondbacks. The Mets can make the tiebreaker scenarios easy by beating the Braves in their final head-to-head series of the season. Then, New York would hold the tiebreaker over every other wild-card hopeful.

#LGM    have the Tiebreaker over #LetsGoPadres    and #Dbacks   

If they win series #BravesCountry    the 2nd to last series they will have Tiebreaker over them too.

FWIW pic.twitter.com/TfNmUqrHuZ

— Nicholas Earle (ESB) (@nicholas_earle) September 9, 2024

Despite the mounting pressure for the Padres, the team's focus is on the here and now.

"I couldn’t be more genuine and sincere about — I mean, look, no one is naive to the scoreboards and no one is naive to other games and all that,” manager Mike Shildt told Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. “But I am really confident, very confident and comfortable where our club is relative to the right mindset. … It’s a real dangerous thing to try to escape, to spend your mental energy and time worried about something you can’t control.

"And our guys, our feet are pointed right where we’re planted. And I feel really, really confident about that. I know that’s how this needs to work, and it is working.”