Mike Shildt Loves Where Padres Stand Despite Middling Start

At 25-25 entering Tuesday's game in Cincinnati, things could be better — but also much worse.

Apr 7, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt (8) catches a ball in the dugout before the game against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres began the season with 40.9 percent odds of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. San Diego missed the playoffs last year — albeit barely — and trimmed their Opening Day payroll from $248.9 million to $164.5 million in the span of one year.

After the departures of veterans Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and others, the Padres have rebuilt their roster through a mix of aggressive minor league promotions and trades. Flash forward to May 21, and the Padres entered the opening game of their series against the Cincinnati Reds with a 25-25 record.

Through 50 games a year ago, the Padres were 23-27 with a bloated payroll. Fans were groaning about the wide gap between expectations and reality.

Mike Shildt had an up-close view of last year's disappointment as a senior advisor to the major league staff and player development department. Briefly, he filled in as the Padres' third base coach. Now as the team's manager, he understands how the Padres' reality and expectations line up compared to this time a year ago — and he likes what he sees.

“I feel like this club is in a really good spot,” Shildt told reporters, including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “I think we’ve gained a ton of ground relative to how we’re going to play. We’ve clearly created an identify [sic] of how we’re going to compete, the resiliency, the grit. We did a lot of things really well. It’s just a matter of consistency. But our club is in a really good spot.”

To wit: Since beginning the season under 50 percent, the Padres' playoff odds have ticked up to 58.9 percent, per FanGraphs.

Banking wins in tough series hasn't been an issue. The Padres took three out of four games from the Braves in Atlanta last week. Two weeks ago, they stole two of three at home from the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. They've also somewhat inexplicably lost five of six games against the Colorado Rockies this season.

Therein, the Padres have ostensibly forged an identity the manager can take pride in, even if it isn't obvious at all times to fans. What's more obvious is the Padres' consistency in the standings: they've held down second place in the NL West since the calendar turned to May and never fallen more than four games below .500 since the season began.

The Padres haven't risen more than two games above .500 since the season began, either, but that's been good enough for them to hang around the NL wild card picture in the earlygoing.

FanGraphs' playoff odds take into account strength of schedule. Perhaps the algorithm, and the veteran manager, are both able to look into the future and see better things ahead.