One Stat Explains Why the Padres Are a Lock to Clinch a Playoff Berth

Sam Garcia | Aug 16, 2024

Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports

With about six weeks to play in the regular season, the three National League Wild Card spots are still up for grabs. While no team is mathematically guaranteed to make the playoffs yet, two NL teams are tightening their grip on a spot. 

The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks are neck-and-neck, both posting a 69-53 win-loss record and .566 winning percentage. Both NL West teams are two games behind the Dodgers for first place in the division and four games ahead of the next-best team in the NL Wild Card race.

One stat suggests both the Padres and Diamondbacks will be playoff teams. San Diego holds a 19-3 record dating to July 20. The Padres’ 7-0 victory over the Guardians in Cleveland was the catalyst for a seven-game winning streak. Although San Diego’s streak ended against the Orioles, the team has continued to win, inching closer to the top of the NL West along the way.

The Diamondbacks have found similar success, currently holding an 18-3 record. After their game against the Rays on Friday, the Arizona franchise has a chance to match the Padres’ 22-game record. Considering that the Rays are the second-worst team in the American League East, it is likely that the Diamondbacks will find success against the Rays.

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, all but one of 34 MLB teams that have logged a 19-3 record or better at any point in the season since 2000 have made the playoffs. The only team that did not go on to make the playoffs was the 2005 Athletics, a team that won 88 games. 

If the season ended today, the NL Wild Card teams would be the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Braves. With the hot streak Arizona and San Diego have been on, it will be hard for other teams in the race to catch them. 

The race for the third Wild Card spot is much closer. The Braves are four games behind the Diamondbacks and Padres, and only 2.5 games ahead of the Mets, who are sitting just outside a qualifying spot. 

Such a small difference can easily be altered in one series. The Mets have a .517 winning percentage; the Braves are at .533. Both teams could sweep any given three-game series, and it would be no surprise. With 40 games remaining, the Mets might catch the Braves for the final Wild Card spot. 

Regardless of which team claims the third Wild Card spot, the Padres and Diamondbacks are looking like definite playoff teams as long as there are no dramatic changes to their performance.