Padres' Josh Hader Trade Already Looking Bad 2 Years Later

To say the Brewers made the most of their return would be an understatement. The Padres, not so much.

San Diego Padres relief pitcher Josh Hader (71) talks with Brewers fans in Milwaukee in Aug. 2023 / Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The trade made sense at the time: The Padres were 60-46, second place in the National League West and hoping to gain a cushion in the wild card race. Their closer, Taylor Rogers, had 28 saves but also a 4.35 ERA and a relatively pedestrian 94.3-mph fastball. Moreover, the best closer in the game was available via trade.

That would be Josh Hader, whom the Padres acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers on Aug. 1, 2022 for a package of four players: Rogers, pitcher Dinelson Lamet and prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser.

Almost two years later, it's clear the Brewers made the most of their side of the trade. The Padres can't say the same. The Brewers missed the postseason in 2022 but advanced to the NL wild-card round in 2023. As of Thursday, they're still sitting in first place in the NL Central in no small part due to their return in the Hader trade.

Gasser, 25, could be the key piece in the trade in hindsight. Recalled from Triple-A earlier this month, Gasser has been the winning pitcher in both of his starts and sports a 0.82 ERA (11 innings, 1 run). Ruiz wasn't a Brewer for long. He was dealt as part of a 3-team trade in Dec. 2022 that sent Joel Payamps, William Contreras and minor league pitcher Justin Yeager to Milwaukee.

Contreras, a 26-year-old catcher, won a Silver Slugger award last year. This year he's hitting .359 with a .987 OPS and an MLB-leading 39 runs scored.

As for Hader, he struggled down the stretch in 2022 but ultimately rebounded to be the closer San Diego needed in the postseason. He made five scoreless appearances, recording four saves, in October as the Padres marched to the NLCS for only the third time in franchise history.

The 2023 season saw Hader go 33 for 38 in save opportunities with a sterling 1.28 ERA. He made the National League All-Star team for the fifth time in his career. But he also drew the ire of fans for refusing to be used for more than three outs at a time, even as the season reached a tipping point.

The postseason never came for a Padres team that won 82 games last year. After the season, Hader bolted for Houston in free agency. San Diego's organizational cupboard isn't bare, but the loss of two key prospects in Gasser and Ruiz was surely intended to net more than two postseason series wins.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller is well aware that he operates in volume. By making trades more frequently than his peers, he accepts the risk of losing a large number of them in exchange for (hopefully) a larger share of wins.

Still, it's worth wondering whether the Padres would have fared any worse in October 2022 and again in 2023 without Hader, and how much stronger their farm system might be today with Gasser and Ruiz.