Examining the Effect of Soto's Contract on Phillies and Harper Reworking Deal

Bryce Harper has mentioned that he would like to rework his contract with the Philadelphia Phillies in the past. After Juan Soto's mega-deal, where would the restructuring land?

Oct 6, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first base Bryce Harper (3) celebrates after hitting a two run home run in the sixth inning against the New York Mets during game two of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

On December 8, the New York Mets and Juan Soto made sports history when they agreed on a 15-year, $765 million contract. It is the largest contract in the history of professional sports for both value and length, surpassing the $700 million deal between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani, and the 13-year deal between the Philadelphia Phillies and Bryce Harper.

Harper and Soto have been connected throughout the latter's career, as they have had similar career paths. Both superstars debuted at 19 for the Washington Nationals, entered free agency after their age-25 seasons, and have been among the best hitters in the sport for the entirety of their careers.

While Harper has garnered individual accolades throughout his career, Soto has done the one thing that Harper has not: being a part of a World Series-winning team.

That does not detract anything from Harper's game, as baseball is the ultimate team sport. Unlike football where Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes can single-handedly lead a team to the Super Bowl, or basketball where LeBron James can single-handedly lead a team to the NBA Finals, one player can not single-handedly lead his team to the World Series.

One player can, however, help lead a team out of a rebuild and make them a much better place for free agents to go, something that Harper has done in his time with the Phillies. Harper made his Major League debut in 2012, and from 2012 through 2018 Philadelphia held a 507-627 record. Since the superstar signed in 2019, the team has played to a 463-407 record.

While all of the big-name signings that the Phillies have made have panned out as expected, Harper has been much better than expected. In his time with the club, he has batted .285/.391/.533 with 152 home runs, 455 RBI, and a 149 OPS+.

Harper has now played six seasons of the 13 on his original contract with Philadelphia, and reports began last offseason that the superstar wanted to renegotiate his contract. After seeing Soto sign the largest contract in the history of professional sports, that sentiment is sure to only grow.

Harper will be in his age-32 campaign in 2025, but he has transitioned to being a full-time first baseman, something that will help keep him healthier than playing in the outfield and increase his career longevity. He has also not had the offensive decline that many have in their 30s, posting a 149 OPS+ in 2024, a higher mark than he reached in either 2022 or 2023.

While the superstar has indicated he wants to restructure his contract, with agent Scott Boras hinting at the possibility of a restructure including a clause like one in Mahomes' deal with the Kansas City Chiefs. That deal keeps the quarterback paid along the same lines as his contemporaries, and since Harper signed his deal ahead of 2019, 29 other players have surpassed his AAV, including two of his teammates Trea Turner and Zack Wheeler.

While Harper would not garner an AAV of $51 million, his restructured deal would certainly bring him much closer to $40 million, if not more. He is worth it, and there is no doubt about that. But with a projected 2025 payroll of $260 million already, adding another $15 million or more to a player already on the roster would not help the luxury tax outlook.

That is, unless, the club and Harper agree to massive deferrals as the Dodgers have done of late. They have signed a vast majority of the top free agents over the last two offseasons, and have eclipsed $1 billion in deferrals to help keep their current payroll in check. This could be a path that the Phillies take with Harper.

Per Spotrac, Harper has earned $196,629,629 throughout his career, not including income from outside of his contract. The superstar has endorsement deals with Under Armour, Gatorade, Rawlings, Topps, MLB The Show, and Blind Barber, worth an estimated $6.5 million.

The superstar is not hurting for money by any means and has made clear his intentions of winning and winning in Philadelphia. If they go the deferral route, with seven years and 180.5 million left on his current deal, they could certainly achieve both goals of appeasing their superstar and continuing to be able to win.

Adding three years to his remaining deal, for a total of 10 taking him through his age-41 season, and an extra $219.5 million would bring his remaining deal to $400 million over 10 years. This would give Harper the $40 million AAV he deserves, tying him with Aaron Judge for the fourth-highest in the sport. They could also work in massive deferrals, mortgaging the future for a better chance at winning today.

Even if the Phillies deferred $300 million of the hypothetical deal, Harper would still hold a true value AAV of $10 million while he was playing. He could then secure his future after baseball with 10 years of $30 million yearly payments, or even 20 years of $15 million payments.

This would also take an extra $15 million off the current payroll for the club, allowing them to spend more in free agency. Being able to spend more in free agency means more stars to surround Harper and increase his chances of winning that elusive World Series Championship.

There are ways to make a restructured deal work for both sides. And after the mega deal that Juan Soto signed, that restructuring seems far more likely than it did in days past.