Juan Soto Decision Will Make Massive Impact on Philadelphia Phillies Contending

The Philadelphia Phillies are going to be impacted one way or another by Juan Soto's free agency decision.

Jul 29, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto (22) against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

When the offseason first began, it was expected that the Philadelphia Phillies would be in on the Juan Soto sweepstakes.

Needing some help in the outfield, and with ownership that isn’t afraid to spend, it made sense. Alas, it seems everyone has a limit they are working with, as a rising payroll has surprisingly taken them out of the running.

Based on recent sports, the Phillies never even had discussions with Soto as he was doing his rounds before taking first offer sheets. It was a shocking development, but not one that has everyone believing they are out of the race.

Over at ESPN, Bradford Doolittle put together a piece breaking down how impactful a Soto signing would be for his suitors.

The New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers were thought to be the last teams standing. The ESPN writer opted to include Philadelphia, the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants in the exercise as well.

“The Phillies, just because you never know when Dave Dombrowski will swoop in,” Doolittle explained for their inclusion.

How impactful would the four-time All-Star be in Philadelphia? Based on projections and simulations that were done, their Soto Score would be 101.04, which is slightly above the 100 baseline used and fourth among the squads used.

Their odds of making the postseason would increase by 18.8 percent with him in the lineup and their championship odds would go up by 4.5 percent.

While adding Soto to the lineup would certainly be a boost for the Phillies, they should be motivated mostly to keep him away from their National League East rivals.

As shared by Doolittle, the odds of Philadelphia contending for the division title or pennant drop considerably if the crown jewel of the free agency class opts to take his talents to Queens, New York.

“The Phillies' odds with Soto in house end up at 16.2% for a pennant and 33.6% for the NL East title. In the alternate reality in which Soto ends up with the Mets, those numbers fell to 8.9% and 3.6%.

In other words, one big motivation for the Phillies to go all-in for Soto is simply to keep him away from the Mets -- and the rest of the National League.”

One of the best players in the game, it is no surprise that Soto’s landing spot will have such a major impact on not only the team he picks but their opponents as well. Having to play against him for the next 10+ years in the division instead of having him on your side is as motivating of a factor as any for Philadelphia to jump into the foray and make a last-ditch effort.