MLB Insider Predicts Aaron Nola Will Receive Franchise-Altering Contract

How much money will Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola command, when he tests the free agent market this winter? An MLB insider gives a price estimate, and it isn't cheap.

Jack Vita | Sep 22, 2023

MLB Insider Predicts Aaron Nola Will Receive Franchise-Altering Contract /

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Philadelphia Phillies

This winter, for the first time in his career, Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola will be a free agent.

The Phillies selected him with the 7th overall pick of the 2014 MLB Draft. He made his Major League debut in 2015, and over the last nine years, has been one of the Philadelphia's most reliable and durable arms.

Nola finished fourth in National League Cy Young Award voting a season ago, but has had a bit of an underwhelming 2023. The ace enters Sept. 12 with a 12-9 record, 4.64 ERA and 1.163 WHIP.

Still, at age-30, he is regarded as one of the best pitchers in the National League and has placed top-7 in NL Cy Young voting three different times.

So what might be the price tag on Nola, as he enters free agency?

Top news breaker and longtime national baseball writer Bob Nightengale was recently asked about Nola's free agent market on the Jack Vita Show.

“He’s still young enough, he could still command a seven-year deal for over $160 or $170 (million)," Nightengale said. "I think a lot of teams will be in on him. It’s a small market (for pitchers). Obviously, you’ve got Blake Snell. (There are) not a whole lot of guys out there that are in their prime. So it’s kind of funny that the Phillies hadn’t locked him up earlier. Obviously, there’s disagreement with what they think he’s worth. The Phillies spend money. I can’t remember the Phillies being outspent by anybody. But I would think, pretty much every team in baseball would love to have this guy, so I think he’ll have a good eight to ten teams after him, in particularly the big boys who want to spend, whether it’s the San Francisco Giants or the Yankees or Red Sox, or maybe even Houston."

Nola should be in high-demand this winter. But Nightengale didn't stop there.

"And I wouldn’t rule out Atlanta," Nightengale said. "People always want to play in Atlanta. They would like to have a reinforcement like that. They have a lot of young kids. They don’t have to have him. And let’s not rule out the Texas Rangers. But yeah, I would think he’d like to have a seven-year deal, probably around $170 to $200 million range.”

Last winter, Carlos Rodon signed the richest free agent contract for a pitcher on the market, inking a six-year, $162 million deal with the New York Yankees.

Nightengale believes that Nola's next contract will surpass the dollar value that Rodon signed on for last winter.

There could be up to 10 teams bidding on the services of Nola, which could drive his price tag up to over $200 million.

It will be interesting to see if the Phillies want to shell out this much money for a player who has been a staple of their franchise over the years.

You can catch the full conversation with Bob Nightengale on the Jack Vita Show here:

Published Sep 22, 2023

JACK VITA

Jack Vita is a writer and contributor to Sports Illustrated's Inside the Phillies, and host of the Jack Vita Show, a popular sports podcast available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube and wherever podcasts are found. Jack is a 2017 graduate of Valparaiso University, in northwest Indiana. Since completing his degree, Jack has created his own independent sports media outlet (JackVita.com) and podcast (the Jack Vita Show). He has featured prominent guests from the worlds of sports and entertainment including Brian Urlacher, Scot Pollard, Bob Nightengale, Dan O'Dowd, and Survivor icons Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick, Cirie Fields, Danni Boatwright and "the Dragon Slayer", Coach Benjamin Wade. While studying at Valparaiso, Jack was the school newspaper's beat writer for the Valpo Crusaders men's basketball team, which won three straight Horizon League championships from 2015-2017. Traveling to cover the team, Jack had a front row seat to one of the nation's best mid-major teams, headlined by future NBA Draft pick Alec Peters and coached by NCAA Tournament hero Bryce Drew. Jack hosted a weekly sports radio show and provided play-by-play and color commentary services for ESPN 3 and the university's student radio station, WVUR-FM, 95.1 The Source, covering Valparaiso men's soccer, women's basketball, softball and volleyball. Jack also covered these sports, in addition to men's and women's tennis, baseball and women's soccer for the school newspaper, The Torch. While he was in college, Jack interned for and co-hosted Jewell On Sports, a sports radio program on AM 1050 WLIP in Kenosha, Wisconsin. There, he interviewed various pro athletes such as Ahman Green, Javon Walker and Javier Arenas, in addition to talking sports with the late, great Brad Jewell. Jack also interned for 22nd Century Media, a now defunct newspaper corporation that provided news to the North Shore of Chicago. With 22nd Century Media, Jack wrote post-game recaps, feature stories about local athletes, reviews of local restaurants and compiled the newspaper's "Pet of the Week" and "Athlete of the Week" sections, while providing copy-editing services. Before attending Valparaiso, Jack enrolled at Carthage College in Kenosha, Wisconsin, where he studied for two years before transferring. He is a high school graduate of New Trier Township High School in Winnetka, Illinois. You can follow Jack on Twitter @JackVitaShow, subscribe to his podcast, the Jack Vita Show, wherever podcasts are found, and reach him via email at jack@jackvita.com.