Philadelphia Phillies Ace Predicted to Sign With AL East Team

The Philadelphia Phillies hope to find a way to keep Aaron Nola, but the reigning AL East champs could make a play.

Add the Baltimore Orioles to the list of teams that have their sights set on Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola.

In a piece in Sports Illustrated, the site ranked the top 50 free agents this season and then predicted which team would end up with the free agent.

The site didn’t project Nola to return to the Phillies. They actually projected that Nola would end up with the Orioles, taking him out of the National League but keeping him on the east coast.

For the Orioles, that would be a big acquisition for a team looking to level up after 2023. The Orioles were swept by the eventual world champion Texas Rangers in the AL Division Series after winning 101 games and claiming the AL East title.

Nola could also add a veteran presence to a pitching staff that has a young core built around Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells. Their veteran ballast, Kyle Gibson, is off to free agency.

If the Phillies lost Nola, they would be saying goodbye to their first-round pick from 2014 and one of their most durable pieces.

In 2023 he went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA with 202 strikeouts and 45 walks. He’s recorded at least 200 strikeouts in each of his last five full seasons.

In fact, he’s made 30 or more starts in each of the last five full seasons. He has a 90-71 career record with a 3.72 ERA and 1,582 strikeouts.

Still, there might be a good reason for the Phillies to be all right with losing Nola, per SI:

Nola’s strikeout rate dipped to 25.5%, while his home run rate spiked to a career-worst 1.49 per nine innings—somewhat concerning for a player entering his age-31 season—but any decline should be a gradual one given his consistent production throughout his career.

He was also one of the few players that drew a qualifying offer from their team. Nola could accept that offer and get paid a guaranteed $20 million with Philadelphia in 2024.

But, this being his first time testing free agency, he’s expected to get a multi-year deal — and it may not be in Philly.