Philadelphia Phillies Barely a Top-10 Team in Baseball Based on Recent Projections

Recent projections have the Philadelphia Phillies barely being top-10 contenders in baseball in 2025.

Sep 3, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Tyler Phillips (48) is relieved by Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson (59) against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Rogers Centre. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Despite their somewhat underwhelming offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies are still regarded by many fans and analysts as legitimate World Series contenders.

They are bringing back virtually their entire core from a team that won 95 games in 2024, the second most in baseball, and took home the National League East title. Alas, that performance was for naught, as they had a disappointing showing in the postseason.

Being eliminated in four games by the New York Mets could have certainly led to a bigger shake-up this offseason, but nothing major materialized.

Instead, the front office focused on improving around the edges, signing outfielder Max Kepler and pitchers Joe Ross and Jordan Romano to one-year deals. The biggest transaction they made was acquiring Jesus Luzardo from the Miami Marlins to round out the starting rotation.

There are certainly a few question marks that remain, such as Kepler handling left field with zero previous experience there. Is Romano enough to help compensate for the losses of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez in free agency?

With the amount of star power the Phillies possess, along with their dominant starting rotation, they should once again be amongst the best teams in baseball in 2025.

However, some of their projections aren’t as high as one would think based on where some of the early power rankings have placed the team.

PECOTA recently shared their projections for the playoffs and chances to win the World Series. Philadelphia was suspiciously low in both.

They have a 69% chance of qualifying for the postseason, which is the eighth highest; the Los Angeles Dodgers are at 100%, followed by their NL East rivals, the Atlanta Braves, at 90%.

The Chicago Cubs are at 87%, while the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Mets are at 78%. The Texas Rangers are the last franchise ahead of them at 75%.

2025 Playoff Chances (PECOTA):

100% LAD
90% ATL
87% CHC
78% NYY BAL NYM
75% TEX
69% PHI
63% MIN HOU
62% ARI
58% SEA
49% TOR
38% SD
32% TB
31% KC
29% CLE
26% MIL
22% DET
19% STL
15% SF
12% BOS
8% LAA
6% PIT WSH
5% CIN
2% ATH
0% CWS MIA COL

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 3, 2025

In a bit of an oddity, there are two teams who have lower playoff chances than the Phillies who have higher World Series chances.

In addition to the seven teams mentioned earlier, the Houston Astros, at 6.1%, and Minnesota Twins, at 4.7%, are both ahead of Philadelphia, who came in at No. 10 with a 4.6% chance to win the championship.

Maybe the Phillies aren’t as well-positioned to contend in 2025 as originally thought.

Their starting rotation can hang with any team in baseball, which will keep them in the conversation. Their odds would certainly improve if they brought in legitimate answers for the outfield and if Orion Kerkering can rise to the occasion, along with Romano, to fill the holes in the bullpen.

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