Philadelphia Phillies Offensive Weakness Could Keep Them From A World Series

While the Philadelphia Phillies offense is very dangerous this season, it is not without a few weaknesses that can potentially be exploited.

Sep 28, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first base Bryce Harper (3) stands in the dugout prior to the game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the most dangerous offenses in all of baseball, which played a role in them earning a bye, but could it also be their weakness?

As Manny Randhawa of MLB.com searched for ways to beat each of the team's that earned a bye week heading into the Division Series, his hole in the high-powered Philadelphia team came at the plate.

"Phillies batters saw a higher percentage of breaking balls (32.9%) from opposing pitchers than any other team during the regular season, and the result was a 16th-ranked .276 xwOBA." said Randawa. "And given that Philadelphia hitters just had a month in which their chase rate was 34.1% (tied for the third-highest chase rate over any month by any team this season), it appears to be an opportune time to go heavy on breaking stuff out of the strike zone."

The Phillies will begin their NLDS series against the New York Mets on Saturday afternoon. The Mets had one of MLB's best pitching staffs over the second half of the season and could pose a real threat to Philadelphia.

New York will likely trot out a rotation of David Peterson, Luis Severino, Sean Manea and Jose Quintana in this series.

Peterson, who will probably take the mound in the first game of the series, only throws breaking balls about a quarter of the time.

His worst pitch this year, previously a strength, has been his slider. Batters are seeing it very well this year. He also doesn't get many batters to chase.

Severino also doesn't generate a ton of chases, but is still slightly above average.

The 30-year-old has a slider that he throws just under 25% of the time and does it to relative success. His sinker is far-and-away his best pitch.

Manaea has arguable put together the best year of his career and has done it off the back of a killer sinker-slider duo. He's going to be one of the more threatening pitchers that they have to face.

Phillies sluggers have seen Manaea three times already this season, and have had pretty different results each time. He did log two quality starts against them, though.

Quintana shut down the Philadelphia offense just a few weeks ago as he pitched seven scoreless innings. Ironically, he's the one that doesn't throw a breaking ball, rather opting for more off-speed stuff.

In close games, the Phillies can expect to see a heavy dosage of a killer slider from Mets closer Edwin Diaz.

The breaking ball has likely been a huge focus for this staff as they have taken the time to prepare during the bye period. Hitters should expect to continue seeing a heavy dose of them with this New York pitching staff.