Philadelphia Phillies Pitchers Still Dominating Despite Alarming Trend

The Philadelphia Phillies' rotation has been outstanding in spite of a concerning trend.

May 19, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in baseball as May comes to a close, and their elite starting rotation is a big reason why.

Entering play on Friday, Phillies starting pitchers lead MLB in several notable statistics, including innings pitched (342), ERA (2.68), FIP (3.19) and WAR (8.2). Of the six starters Rob Thomson has used this year, only one (Taijuan Walker) has an ERA over 3.10.

What's even more impressive is how Philadelphia's hurlers are succeeding, as they've managed to dominate without throwing particularly hard. None of the team's starters average 95 mph with their fastball, and four sit below 92 mph.

Altogether, the Phillies' starting pitchers have an average fastball velocity of 92.8 mph, tied for 23rd in the majors and well below the MLB average of 93.4 mph for a starting pitcher.

In an era where teams seek to maximize velocity and spin rate (often at the expense of their pitchers' arms), Philadelphia seems to be going in the opposite direction.

Despite having one of the slowest average fastball velocities as a staff, the Phillies are leading MLB in SP team ERA.#MLBCentral takes a look at how Philly's staff has taken a big step forward even with the velocity being down. pic.twitter.com/qURorMF6LG

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 30, 2024

Several starters are showing decreased velocity compared to last season, which would normally be cause for concern coming off back-to-back deep playoff runs (especially with older pitchers like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola).

After all, five of the six starters were on last year's staff as well.

On the flip side, those same pitchers have also displayed increased pitch movement compared to last season, which has proven to be a worthwhile tradeoff.

Perhaps they naturally have less zip on their pitches after throwing so many additional innings during the past two postseasons. Maybe they're simply taking it easy early in the year so they can save some bullets for October.

Whatever the reason, the Phillies haven't needed overpowering heat to get batters out.

Their starters still rank fourth in strikeout rate (9.05 K/9), missing bats by keeping hitters off-balance. They've also minimized mistakes, posting the lowest home run rate (0.76 HR/9) and ninth-lowest walk rate (2.66 BB/9).

Philadelphia's starters have also done a terrific job of inducing weak contact and keeping the ball on the ground, generating MLB's third-highest ground-ball rate (48.1%) along with the lowest xwOBA (.293) and eighth-lowest hard-hit rate (37.6%).

Add it all up, and it's easy to see why the Phillies' rotation has been lights-out.

Their pitchers are finding other ways to get outs besides simply blowing fastballs by hitters, emphasizing command, movement and changing speeds.

These early returns have been impressive, to say the least.

More importantly, Philadelphia's starters have also managed to stay healthy, which will be crucial if they're going to help the team win a championship this fall.