Phillies Slugger's Legitimate Path To 500 Career Home Runs

The Philadelphia Phillies have a hitter that has a chance to clear one of baseball's biggest milestones.

There is just one Philadelphia Phillies legend in the 500-home run club. MLB.com believes that another Phillie could get there one day.

Recently, the site broke down 13 players that it believes could join the club, which features 28 players in baseball history.

Right now, the Phillies legend in the club is Mike Schmidt, who hit 548 home runs in his career, which spanned from 1972 to 1989.

The story proposes that Bryce Harper could be the Phillies player that could join him.

Harper didn’t start his career in Philadelphia like Schmidt did. He started his career in 2012 with the Washington Nationals. He joined the Phillies as a free agent in 2019. He’s entering the sixth year of his 13-year, $330 million deal.

Both he and the Phillies are talking about an extension that will ensure that Harper finishes his career in Philadelphia.

He’s already been NL Rookie of the Year, a two-time NL MVP, a three-time Silver Slugger and a seven-time All-Star.

More importantly to this discussion, he has 306 career home runs entering his age 31 season.

So how does Harper get there from here? Well, his 162-game average for home runs is 33 per year. The math is easy enough. If Harper hits 33 home runs per year he can reach 500 home runs sometime in the 2029 season.

MLB.com points out a variable that might allow it to happen sooner. In seasons when Harper plays at least 150 games he averages 34 home runs. That includes his NL-leading and career-high 42 home runs in his first MVP season in 2015.

Another variable could hamper his pursuit and that’s his health. Harper suffered a torn UCL in 2022 and while he played through it he was limited to 99 games in 2022 and managed 126 games in 2023 primarily as a designated hitter. He’s also played fewer than 120 games in three other full seasons.

It’s part of Philadelphia’s logic in sliding Harper to first base full-time. It’s a less taxing position than outfield and should, theoretically, allow Harper a better chance at remaining healthy and playing longer.

In the end, MLB.com believes Harper will get there, as he’s more than halfway to 500 and just entering his 30s. The site also supports Harper getting there by writing that Citizens Bank Park is one of the friendliest parks for left-handed hitters. Harper will play 81 games there each year he’s a Phillie.

Looking ahead, it’s clearly possible Schmidt will have company. All Harper has to do is hit 33 home runs per year.