Phillies Starting Staff One of MLB's Best According to PECOTA

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections came out Thursday. Luckily for the Philadelphia Phillies, their starting rotation is one of the highest ranked in the NL East.

Ben Silver | Feb 16, 2022

The starting rotation is one of the only aspects of the Philadelphia Phillies that doesn’t require an overhaul before Opening Day 2022.

In 2021 Phillies President Dave Dombrowski acquired 34-year-old veteran Kyle Gibson, while Ranger Suarez proved he could be a legitimate addition to the staff. Adding these two alongside the already battle-tested trio of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin means the Phillies have little to worry about besides injuries for consistency in their rotation.

Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA depth chart projections were released to the public. These predictions, which aim to accurately predict statlines for every player league-wide, concur on the solidity of the Phillies starting five.

PECOTA predicts that each Philadelphia starter will average exactly 2 WARP (wins above replacement player), Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR. Only New York Mets starters are projected to average more WARP (2.4) per pitcher in the National League East. The Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals are projected for 1.5, 1.4 and 0.7 WARP respectively.

The Phillies total is especially impressive considering the Mets arguably have MLB’s best one-two combo in Jacob deGrom and newly acquired Max Scherzer.

Of course, baseball games aren’t won and lost in stat sheets and WARP alone is a convoluted conglomeration of analytics boiled down into one easy-to-understand number. But WARP isn’t the only area in which Phillies pitchers outpace their competition.

Perhaps most importantly, all Phillies starters are projected for 100 IP or more. This rotation has no question marks and that’s where their value is found. PECOTA predicts Zach Wheeler will throw 183.2 IP for a 3.00 ERA, Aaron Nola for 166 IP and a 2.89 ERA, Ranger Suarez for 132 IP and a 3.46 ERA, Zach Eflin for 106.1 IP and a 3.57 ERA and Kyle Gibson for 151.1 IP for a 4.46 ERA.

Though these innings totals may seem comparatively low, PECOTA attempts to account for injuries and the possibility that any individual could potentially miss the entire season with a torn UCL or blisters, thus every player on their depth chart projections has their innings total diminished.

Should all five Phillie starters maintain their projected ERA over the course of the season, the 2022 Phillies will undoubtedly have their best starting staff since 2011, let alone one of the best staffs in baseball.

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Published Feb 16, 2022

BEN SILVER

Ben Silver is deputy editor for Inside the Phillies. A graduate of Boston University, Ben formerly covered the Phillies for PhilliesNation.com. Follow him on Twittter @BenHSilver.