What is Pitching+ and Why Does It Project Phillies Pitchers So Highly?

The Athletic's pitching+ has gained in prominence over the past few years. Now before the 2022 season, they've released a definitive ranking of MLB's top 200 starters according to their new analytic.

© Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

You probably haven’t heard of the pitching+ model, but it can be an invaluable tool in evaluating and projecting future performance.

On Friday, The Athletic released 2022 starting pitching rankings based upon these projections, with several Philadelphia Phillies starters placing high on the list.

To understand exactly what Pitching+ is, we’ll need to explain the metrics it’s built on, stuff+, command+, and location+.

Pitching+, like Fangraphs’ ZiPS or Steamer projections, attempts to prognosticate the success of a player before the MLB season begins.

Each adage of pitching+ uses a wide set of analytical metrics to determine exactly how it should be calculated. For example, the five most important components of stuff+ are velocity difference between pitches, vertical movement difference, horizontal movement difference, pitching velocity, and spin rate.

Stuff+ is described by The Athletic as “the physical qualities of the pitch”, while command+ is “an overall command stat that judges outcomes by intent, separately by pitch type, and then sums it all up.” Location+ measures “the pitcher’s ability to put those pitches in the right places in the zone (a little like judging a hitter’s ability to discern balls from strikes).”

All of these statistics use the “+” formula as indicated in the name. For all players, 100 is average, any full integer above or below 100 means that player is a full percent better or worse than league average.

Using these new analytics, The Athletic generated starting pitcher rankings for the 2022 season. These rankings track pitchers through the top 200 and feature all five Phillies starters.

Highest on the list is 2021’s NL Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler. He’s ranked #7 with 106.5 stuff+, 105.2 location+, and 109.5 pitching+. League-wide only four full-time starters in 2021 have a higher pitching+ projection for 2022.

Phillies Pitcher Zack Wheeler Facing the Mets in August / © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Phillies #2 starter Aaron Nola is similarly ranked high on the list at #12. His stuff+ is only just above average at 100.2, but his location+ is 105.3, and his pitching+ is 103.6.

However, after these two begins a steep drop-off. The next Phillies starter is Zach Eflin, ranked #96 while Ranger Suárez is ranked #99. For Suárez, only one of his metrics is above 100, his location+ at 101.9, while Eflin’s location+ is a very respectable 107.6 with a pitching+ of 103.0.

The drop-off reaches a free-fall after Eflin and Suárez, with Kyle Gibson ranked the 173rd best pitcher according to The Athletic.

None of Gibson’s analytics break the 100 threshold. His best of the three is location+ at 98.9, but his stuff is 96.0 and pitching+ is 98.1. These metrics make Gibson out to be barely even mediocre, but from a fifth starter, perhaps mediocre is all the Phillies need.

If Wheeler and Nola can perform to the level pitching+ believe they can, Citizens Bank Park could become a frightening place for opposing hitters.

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