The Philadelphia Phillies Should Reconsider Carlos Estevez's Role Ahead of Playoffs

After another shaky outing from their big trade deadline acquisition, the Philadelphia Phillies should reconsider the role Carlos Estevez will fill in the playoffs.

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The Philadelphia Phillies approached the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline with their intentions set on acquiring bullpen help and a fourth outfielder to add to their mix.

Now over 50 days removed from the deadline, none of the moves have worked as the Phillies had hoped.

The fourth outfielder, Austin Hays, was used as an everyday player and struggled in the role, and is now on his second injured list stint since being acquired.

One of the relievers acquired, Tanner Banks, has been used in a long relief role or lefty specialist situations, but has been shaky if not used frequently.

What could be labeled as the biggest move Philadelphia made at the deadline, however, could be the one that ends their season prematurely.

The Phillies traded two minor league pitchers, George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri, to the Los Angeles Angels for closer Carlos Estevez.

While Estevez has not been outright bad since the trade, it has become increasingly evident that he was due for a regression to the mean, and Philadelphia is getting the brunt of that regression.

One of the biggest indicators of whether a pitcher's (or a hitter's) performance is sustainable is Batting Average on Balls In Play or BABIP.

After a player has tallied 1,000 plate appearances, BABIP tends to stay within range of the career average BABIP with a 0.050 difference in either direction indicating a hot or a cold stretch.

For Estevez, he entered the 2024 season with a career BABIP of .322.

The veteran was pitching to a .202 BABIP before the Angels traded him, a .120 difference.

Since the trade, he has pitched to a .269 BABIP, indicating that the regression to the mean has started.

This has also been proven in his Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched, or WHIP, differences before and after the trade.

While with Los Angeles, Estevez carried a 0.735 WHIP which is a fantastic mark.

It has been a much more unsightly 1.158 with the Phillies, allowing .423 more baserunners per inning pitched.

The majority of that has been his walk rate on the year, which has also been due for massive regression.

Estevez entered 2024 with a career walk rate of 9.3 percent, meaning that he walked 9.3 batters out of every 100 that he faced.

During his Angels tenure in 2024, he carried a walk rate of only four percent.

That has now balooned to 7.7 percent with Philadelphia, and is still due for more regression.

Now, you may look at his 2.37 ERA with the Phillies and think, "Well that's not bad! It's actually pretty good!"

With relievers, ERA should mostly be taken with a grain of salt.

Relief pitchers pitch to a much smaller amount of innings compared to starting pitchers, especially when considering two separate innings totals split between two different teams.

While a 2.37 ERA is very good, it also comes in only 19 innings.

A much better metric to look at for relievers is Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP.

Estevez's FIP with Philadelphia has been a much worse 3.86.

Craig Kimbrel carried a 3.26 ERA for the Phillies in the 2023 regular season with a 3.81 FIP, and everyone remembers how well that worked for the club in October.

Alek Thomas (3) 🍁

Opponent: Philadelphia Phillies
Pitcher: Craig Kimbrel
Date: 10/20/23 pic.twitter.com/N62o7GlD9x

— Diamondbacks Home Runs (@DbacksHomers) September 3, 2024

If the above is not enough evidence of even more regression to come, Fangraphs has multiple projection models, and each of them has Estevez finishing the season much worse than he started it.

Fangraphs also has a "clutch" metric that indicates how much better or worse a player performs in high-leverage situations compared to a neutral environment.

For his career, Estevez carries a 0.69 clutch, while this season it sits at -0.04.

Late innings in October are some of the highest-leverage situations that one could face, and Estevez is just not made for those situations.

None of this is to say that Estevez would not be a viable option for Philadelphia in the postseason.

It is just to state that the role that Estevez currently fills for the Phillies will not be viable in October.

The best course of action for Philadelphia would be returning to their "closer by committee" method of operation, with Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman acting as the "closer" depending on whether there are more left-handed or right-handed hitters due up in the ninth inning, respectively.

Estevez is a good pitcher, he has proved that throughout his career.

Estevez is not a good closer, and he has also proved that throughout his career.