Inside The Phillies

What Can Philadelphia Phillies Expect From New Outfielder Max Kepler?

What will the Philadelphia Phillies get from one of the most inconsistent players in baseball?

Tyler Maher

Jul 21, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins right field Max Kepler (26) takes a lead off third base against the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field
Jul 21, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins right field Max Kepler (26) takes a lead off third base against the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field / Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
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The Philadelphia Phillies are rolling the dice on Max Kepler, agreeing to a deal with the former Minnesota Twins outfielder on a one-year, $10 million contract.

How will he perform for the Phillies in 2025?

It's hard to say.

Kepler has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career, with his OPS fluctuating by at least 40 points every year since 2018. He's had two seasons with an OPS over .800 (2019 and 2023) during that span, but also two years with an OPS below .700 (2022 and 2024).

At his best, Kepler is a good power hitter with solid plate discipline who can work a walk and doesn't strike out too much.

He's also been a plus defender in right field throughout his career.

Kepler already has four seasons with at least 20 home runs under his belt, and Citizens Bank Park is one of the most homer-friendly parks in MLB (especially for left-handed hitters).

If he stays healthy, he could slug a few more homers and enjoy a mini-resurgence at the plate.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, Kepler has been more bad than good lately and appears to be on the decline.

In two of his last three seasons, he's finished with single-digit homers and a sub-.700 OPS.

Kepler will be 32 next year, so that's a concerning trend. It's also worrisome that his walk rate has been cut in half over the last two seasons, plummeting from 11% in 2022 to 5.5% last year.

Throw in his diminishing power and the second-lowest average exit velocity of his career last season (88.7 mph), and it's hard to feel optimistic about him rebounding in 2025.

Kepler has been consistently unpredictable throughout his career, so who knows what's in store for him next year.

Philadelphia is paying him $10 million to find out what, if anything, he still has left in the tank.

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Tyler Maher
TYLER MAHER

Tyler is a writer for Sports Illustrated's Inside the Phillies. He grew up in Massachusetts and is a huge Boston sports fan, especially the Red Sox. He went to Tufts University and played club baseball for the Jumbos. Since graduating, he has worked for MLB.com, The Game Day, FanDuel and Forbes. When he's not writing about baseball, he enjoys running, traveling, and playing fetch with his golden retriever.

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