What Percentage Chance Do Philadelphia Phillies Have To Make Postseason?

The Philadelphia Phillies have some lofty expectations to live up to based on odds of making the playoffs.

Oct 9, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson relieves pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) against the New York Mets in the fifth inning in game four of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citi Field. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies have suffered excruciating disappointing losses in the postseason three years running.

In 2022, they were defeated in the World Series in six games by the Houston Astros. The following year, another pennant was in their grasp heading home with a 3-2 lead in the NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

They lost both games at Citizens Bank Park and were eliminated.

This past October, after winning 95 games in the regular season and earning a bye as the National League East champions, their playoff stay lasted four games when they were defeated by the New York Mets in the NLDS.

Ownership was looking for a roster shake-up after the early exit, but that didn’t come to fruition.

Instead, the winter was spent bolstering the team with a few bounce back candidates who are coming off disappointing 2024 campaigns, mostly because of injuries.

Max Kepler was signed to take over left field, a position he has never played as a professional. He is the projected change to the lineup personnel-wise heading into Opening Day this year.

Jordan Romano was signed to help bolster the back end of the bullpen since Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez both departed in free agency. Joe Ross was also added to the relief pitching mix in free agency.

In search of a fifth starter after Taijuan Walker’s struggles in 2024, the Phillies made a trade with the Miami Marlins to acquire Jesus Luzardo to fill that void. He has shown front-end flashes and could elevate this rotation to another level.

With those additions and essentially the entire core of a 95-win team returning, it should come as no surprise that Philadelphia is holding one of the top spots in the MLB power rankings of The Athletic (subscription required).

The reigning NL East champs landed at the No. 4 spot heading into the season on the strength of their starting rotation.

“The team has the best starting rotation in the National League, with Grapefruit League observers chattering about Cristopher Sánchez potentially joining Zack Wheeler as a co-ace this season. If former Marlin Jesús Luzardo can stay healthy, the rotation will be even stronger,” the writers wrote.

Their playoff odds are currently at 78.4%, which is the fourth-highest in baseball.

Only the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners have better odds entering the campaign as the only teams with a percentage of at least 90.

A shake-up could occur during the regular season if the team’s production wanes or the new additions don’t bounce back in the fashion the franchise is hoping. 

But major changes likely won’t come until the winter when some of their key contributors, such as JT Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber, hit free agency and the team could look to make a big splash on the market.

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