Bohm Has Not Been the Big Bat the Phillies Have Asked Him to Be

Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm got off to a great start in 2022, but ever since he has failed to get the job done at the plate.

Leo Morgenstern | May 31, 2022

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Philadelphia Phillies

For much of the season, Alec Bohm seemed like one of the few bright spots in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup. He got off to a hot start, reaching base in each of his first six plate appearances, and as several Phillies struggled to hit above the Mendoza line, Bohm carried a .300 batting average into mid-May.

Heading into the season, it was unclear if Bohm would even have a full-time job in Philadelphia, but it didn't take long before he became the starting third baseman and Joe Girardi's favourite two-hole hitter.

The fact of the matter is, however, that Bohm's hot start and high batting average have been covering up his flaws like a cheap paint job. With time, the paint has started to chip away, and Bohm's shortcomings have become more and more apparent.

The Hot Start

In his first two starts, Bohm singled once, doubled twice, and walked three times. His strong offensive performance helped Philadelphia win both games.

As the season has worn on, that hot start has been masking Bohm's offensive difficulties. Those first six plate appearances are inflating his season numbers, and concealing the fact that since April 12 – his third game of the year – Bohm has been mediocre at the plate.

This chart shows Bohm's cumulative 2022 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) by game. wRC+ is a comprehensive batting statistic that compares a player to league average – anything higher than 100 is above average, and anything lower than 100 is below average.

Cumulative wRC+ numbers via FanGraphs Game Logs. April 9 through May 29

As the chart shows, Bohm started off strong, but his wRC+ quickly fell to around league average, where it has plateaued for quite some time. On May 28, his wRC+ for the season dropped below average for the first time.

By this metric, Bohm was an above average hitter from the start of the season until three days ago. That's pretty good. The problem is, Bohm's first two games are doing a lot of the heavy lifting there.

This second chart shows his cumulative 2022 wRC+ by game, starting on April 12. In other words, Bohm's first two games have been removed from the calculation.

Cumulative wRC+ numbers via FanGraphs Game Logs. April 12 through May 29

Bohm's wRC+ still plateaus in this chart, but this time the plateau is below 100. Without the first two games to boost his numbers, Bohm has been a below average hitter for most of the year.

The Batting Average

Bohm is hitting .269 on the season. Since April 12, he's still hitting .256. Both of those numbers are significantly better than the MLB average of .239.

In Bohm's case, unfortunately, hitting at an above-average rate doesn't quite cut it, because batting average is really the only thing he's been bringing to the table.

Not including his first two games, Bohm's on-base percentage is .285. In 179 PA, he has walked just 8 times. His slugging percentage is .348, and, funnily enough, he also has just 8 extra-base hits.

That adds up to a .633 OPS. The MLB average right now is .696. An OPS 63 ticks below average is not what you want to see from a player who often hits right in front of Bryce Harper in the batting order.

So, Bohm's relatively high batting average this season – which ranks just a little bit below Jazz Chisholm Jr. and a little bit above Nolan Arenado – is covering up the fact that he isn't getting on base very much or hitting for enough power.

Despite sporting a decent batting average and a wRC+ higher than 100 almost all year, Bohm has actually been one of the worse hitters in the lineup for most of the season.

Going Forward

It's still early in the season, and Bohm is still just 25 years old. It's certainly not time to give up on him yet, but it's not unreasonable to be worried either. Bohm is on his way to a second straight season of mediocre offense, and with such a poor glove, he needs to hit in order to stick around.

Thankfully, all is not lost.

While Bohm put up poor numbers last season, he actually hit very well in the second half of the year – much better than he hit has this season.

This chart from FanGraphs shows Bohm's wRC+ in every 20-game span since his debut, and it is clear that he has had just as many good runs as slumps in his young career.

Data through May 29, 2022. — Data through May 29, 2022 / Chart created via FanGraphs

Bohm's expected statistics from Statcast also provide a sunnier outlook for his future. His expected batting average (xBA) this season is much better than his actual batting average, and in fact it ranks in the top ten percent of the league. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) is good too, coming close to .500. Those are the numbers of a very strong hitter.

Statcast expected statistics should be taken with a grain of salt this season, because they are based on years worth of data, and baseballs have clearly been travelling differently this year than ever before.

For the first time in Statcast history (since 2015), the league average xBA and xSLG are both higher than league average BA and SLG. Thus, if xBA and xSLG were scaled to league average, Bohm's Statcast numbers wouldn't look as impressive.

That being said, these numbers are still good sign that Bohm is making solid contact with the ball, and he should hope to see slightly better results going forward.

If Bohm wants to see more than slightly better results, however, he's going to have to make some adjustments. He needs to start walking more often and finding ways to hit for more power. He could also benefit from making contact more regularly, since he hits the ball so well when he does.

Bohm is still growing as a hitter, so he isn't going to be the player who saves the Phillies lineup in 2022. The veterans need to step up to do that instead. But hopefully, as the season goes on, Bohm will start to make the necessary improvements. If he does so, he still has the potential to be a top-of-the-order bat.

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Published May 31, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.