How Using Analytics Helps Optimize the Phillies' Lineup

It seems like Joe Girardi has already determined the Philadelphia Phillies lineup for Opening Day, but what do analytics say about how it should be constructed?

Ben Silver | Apr 8, 2022

It was just over seven years ago that the Philadelphia Phillies analytics department was little more than a potted plant under general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

Since then, the Phillies front office has gone through many changes, from Matt Klentak's misused data to shift the defense incorrectly on every play to Dave Dombrowski's ever-steady hand.

They've gone through changes in managerial style in that time too, from old-school Pete Mackanin to analytically-inclined Gabe Kapler and now Joe Girardi, who seems a mix of the two.

Each has taken a different approach to lineup construction, with Mackanin consistently batting light-hitting Freddy Galvis second to Kapler mixing and matching his lineup every day in 2018.

Now, Joe Girardi has a conundrum that his predecessors haven't faced since Charlie Manuel.

How does a team construct a lineup when they have too many good hitters?

It seems like Girardi's lineup for Opening Day is already determined; He's used a variation of the following lineup for the last few games of spring training:

Last spring game before the real deal on Friday!#Phillies lineup vs. Rays in Tampa:

Schwarber DH
Realmuto C
Harper RF
Castellanos LF
Hoskins 1B
Gregorius SS
Segura 2B
Stott 3B
Moniak CF

Suárez P
— Inside the Phillies (@InsidePhilsFN) April 6, 2022

This version of the lineup uses an interesting mix of power and contact. None of the Phillies consensus five best hitters, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos are traditional lead-off men like the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins once was. This means that even starting the lineup puts Girardi and the Phillies in a tough position.

The Book: Playing The Percentages In Baseball by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin provides a fairly deep run-down on the basics of lineup construction according to analytics.

The first rule of which is obvious, a lineup should always put their best hitters near the top. In a study of American League designated hitter lineups from 1999-2002, a one-hole hitter got on average, .93 more plate appearances per game than a nine-hole hitter.

Each position in the batting order has about 2.5% more plate appearances a game than the next one. Extrapolated out over a full season, that's an extra 18 plate appearances per position in the batting order.

One must also factor how often runners are on base. The clean-up hitters come to bat with runners on 51% of the time and sees 3.2 runners on-base per game, while the lead-off hitter comes to bat with runners on-base 36% of the time, seeing 2.39 runners per game.

All of this math is somewhat obvious, but it lays the groundwork for how a lineup should be built.

The final mathematical leap for determining a lineup is run values.

Runs are the currency of baseball, nothing else matters in the aggregate and run values tell you exactly how valuable a certain outcome is—whether it be a single, double, triple. home run HBP, strikeout, walk or general out—in every situation.

For example, a walk with no runners on, and none out is worth .41 run value. The team is now projected to score .41 more runs after that play than before. A walk with two outs and a runner on second is worth .13 run value. Obviously, a walk is far less valuable with more outs and runners on-base, the inverse is true for home runs.

Combining run value with how many runners are on, and for what spot in the batting order, produces a chart that displays run value for each outcome for each spot in the batting order. Using that chart, we can directly compare how valuable each outcome is for each batting order position.

For example, a strikeout is worth -.317 runs in the three-hole, but -.332 runs in the four-hole. This means players who strike out more often are better utilized in the three-hole over the four-hole. They'll be up with two outs or a double-play situation more often, so a strikeout isn't as detrimental.

Perhaps most interestingly is the run value for an general out for each batter. For the lead-off hitter, the two-hole hitter, and the cleanup-hitter, the run value of an out is -.328, -.324 and -.327 respectively. These are the positions in the lineup with the highest detrimental value for an out, and therefore, the positions where you should have your three best hitters.

The is antithetical to the Phillies line-up, their best hitter, Bryce Harper, bats third, which has an out worth a -.315 run value. There an out is less detrimental than even the five-hole, worth -.323 run value for an out.

When debating between which batter to place between the two- and four-spot for entirely equal players, put the player with more walks in the two-spot and more power in the four-hole.

Meanwhile, the lead-off spot should go to the player with the higher OBP, but slightly less power.

Three-hole hitters get a .020 run advantage on home runs over the five-hole. So put a hitter of better quality in the five-spot, but a more powerful hitter who strikes out more in the five-hole.

The reason for this is that the three-spot comes up far more often with two-outs, so they're production is mitigated by the fact that unless they hit a home run, the next batter will more than likely make an out, ending the inning.

As the lineup descends, the six-spot has higher run values than the seven-spot and seven more than the eight-spot and so on.

So, The Book says a team's best hitters should bat somewhere in the one-, two-, and four-spots, the fourth and fifth best hitters should bat in the third and fifth spots, and the rest of the lineup should descend as the quality of hitter descends.

The Phillies best hitter is Bryce Harper, he's capable of hitting the most home runs, but he also walks a lot. He's best suited for the two- or four-spot.

Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies' next two best hitters, at least they would have been in 2021. Schwarber walks far more often than Castellanos, his 2021 walk-rate was 6.6% higher than Castellanos'.

Schwarber should bat first. Between Castellanos and Harper, Harper walks far more often, but has somewhat similar power to Castellanos. Thus, Harper should bat second and Castellanos should bat fourth.

The Phillies next two best hitters going into 2022 are J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins. Both have somewhat similar strikeout-rates in the past few seasons, but Hoskins' walk-rate and home run-rate are much higher.

Since strikeouts are a push for the two players, we'd like to use walk-rate and home run-rate to determine which player ends up in the three-hole, but Hoskins leads in both categories. Home runs are more valuable in the three-spot and walks are more valuable in the five-spot.

Between these two players, it's a toss-up. The three-spot and five-spot in the lineup should be determined on a given day based upon match-up.

The next highest quality hitter for the Phillies is Jean Segura, he should bat sixth.

The platoon of Bryson Stott/Alec Bohm should hit seventh, Gregorius should hit eighth, and lastly, Matt Vierling and his center field platoon partner should hit ninth.

Using analytics, we've come to a conclusion that the Phillies lineup should look something like this on Opening Day, if Joe Girardi is using data and math to its greatest potential:

1. Kyle Schwarber

2. Bryce Harper

3. J.T. Realmuto/Rhys Hoskins

4. Nick Castellanos

5. J.T. Realmuto/Rhys Hoskins

6. Jean Segura

7. Alec Bohm/Bryson Stott

8. Didi Gregorius

9. Matt Vierling

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Published Apr 8, 2022

BEN SILVER

Ben Silver is deputy editor for Inside the Phillies. A graduate of Boston University, Ben formerly covered the Phillies for PhilliesNation.com. Follow him on Twittter @BenHSilver.