Andrew Chafin is the Perfect Left-Handed Reliever for the Phillies' Bullpen

Left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin is a great fit for the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen.

Leo Morgenstern | Dec 1, 2022

Andrew Chafin is the Perfect Left-Handed Reliever for the Phillies' Bullpen /

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies could use another left-handed arm for the bullpen. As things currently stand, José Alvarado, Cristopher Sánchez, and recent waiver claim Andrew Vasquez are the only southpaw relievers on the 40-man roster. Alvarado is the only lock to make next year's opening day bullpen.

Brad Hand, the second lefty in the Phillies bullpen last season, is now a free agent. The team would like an upgrade over Hand so they don't find themselves asking Ranger Suárez to pitch out of the bullpen again next October.

Left-handed relievers on the free agent market are few and far between. The top choices are Taylor Rogers, Matt Moore, and Andrew Chafin. After those three, the remaining options come with more questions than answers.

Rogers is the cream of the crop. Over the past two years, he ranks third among left-handed relievers with a 2.86 FIP, behind A.J. Minter and Josh Hader. His 2.82 xFIP ranks second, trailing only Hader.

Unfortunately, that means Rogers will also come with the highest price tag. The Phillies should have plenty of money to work with, but they're already planning to spend big on a star shortstop (and perhaps a starting pitcher too). With that in mind, it seems unlikely they'll target the highest-priced relief options.

Moore, meanwhile, is a popular name on the market after his surprisingly excellent 2022 season. In his first full year out of the bullpen, the 33-year-old pitched 74 innings with a 1.95 ERA and 2.98 FIP. Philadelphia, however, would be wise to stay away from Moore – and Moore would be wise to stay away from Philadelphia. He was dreadful for the Phillies in 2021, and a change of scenery clearly did him a world of good.

Thus, we're left with one name: Andrew Chafin. Chafin is the best of all possible worlds. He's an upgrade over Hand, he shouldn't cost quite as much as Rogers, and he doesn't have a disastrous history in Philadelphia like Moore.

Since his debut season in 2014, Chafin has completed over 400 innings of work. He has a career 3.23 ERA and 3.17 FIP. He's been excellent against left-handed batters, keeping them to a .222 AVG and .271 wOBA, but he holds his own against right-handed batters too. Righties have hit just .231 against him with a .284 wOBA.

Now in his early thirties, Chafin is still as good as ever. Over the past two seasons, he has made 135 relief appearances with a 2.29 ERA and 3.02 FIP. His walk rate is lower than it's ever been and he has gotten much better at limiting hard contact.

Chafin turned down a $6.5 million player option for 2023, so he'll be looking for more than that on the open market. As one of the few left-handed options available, he should be able to command an annual average salary between $8 and $10 million on a two or three-year deal.

If Dave Dombrowski is concerned about the average annual value of the contract, they can offer him a three-year contract with a lower AAV. If he's more concerned about making a long-term commitment, they can offer him a higher annual salary on a two-year deal. Ultimately, however, the president of baseball operations should do whatever it takes to make it work. The Phillies need a new southpaw, and Chafin is the best fit.

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Published Dec 1, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.