Back-End Stability: Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Trade Targets

The Philadelphia Phillies need stability at the end of their rotation. What low-risk trade deadline maneuvers might net them a starter for cheap?

© Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Bailey Falter is simply not going to cut it. As much as the Philadelphia Phillies would like to turn him into an innings-eating, left-handed, bullpen/starter swing man, it's not going to happen in 2022.

Falter is too unpredictable. He gives up home runs at an extreme rate — nine in just 33 innings — and both his strikeout and walk rate have gotten worse since his debut in 2021.

Zach Eflin cannot be relied upon to pitch meaningful innings down the stretch. Over the past four seasons, except for 2020, Eflin has been hampered by crushing injuries. 

For his career, the 28-year-old impending free agent has a 4.08 first-half ERA, but in the second-half that figure balloons to 5.82. Even if Eflin comes back from injury late in the season, there's no guarantee he'll be effective.

Thus, despite starting the year with undeniable rotational strength, the Phillies will be forced to acquire a starter at the deadline.

Given the multitude of positional requirements the Phillies will pursue before the August 2 deadline, it seems likely they'll chase marginal upgrades at several roles: center field, infield and starting pitcher.

Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has shown interest in players on multi-year deals, since both Eflin and Kyle Gibson will be free agents this coming winter.

With Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez locked into Philadelphia's 2023 rotation, any long-term addition would go far in solidifying the Phillies’ position.

The Kansas City Royals' Brad Keller might be a name to keeps tabs on. Under contract through next summer, Keller has a 4.04 career ERA and 4.15 career FIP. He's thrown 107.2 innings in 2022, a vital figure given that one of the Phillies’ most effective strategies since June has been limiting bullpen usage.

A rested reliever is better than a tired reliever.

Like Keller, the San Francisco Giants' Alex Wood is also under contract through 2023. Intending to be competitors in 2022, the Giants sprang for Wood in free agency, offering him a 2-year, $25 million contract following his effective 2021 season in their rotation.

Unfortunately for the 2021 NL West champions, this season has not gone as planned. They now find themselves 3.5 games out of the third NL wildcard, two games under .500, and on a seven-game losing streak.

Over the last two weeks they've played themselves out of contention, and if that trend continues through the deadline, Wood could find himself on the trade block.

The Phillies are ideal trade partners. They're in need of a third/fourth starter with a solid track record, exactly what Wood brings. He has a 4.21 ERA in 2022 with a 3.33 FIP. Going back to 2017, Wood has an ERA of 3.74 of 585 innings.

Alex Wood pitches against his former club in Los Angeles / © Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

He's not a workhorse, but he'll certainly give the Phillies plenty of quality innings.

The price tag on these two pitchers might be a little bit higher due to their extra year of team control, but both of their clubs are in need of centerfielders. Johan Rojas would almost certainly be included in any deal with Rafael Marchan as a sweetener, a Major League ready backup catcher.

Keller and Wood aren't the Phillies' only solutions for upgrading the back-end of the rotation, but they are the most likely multi-year candidates.

The Colorado Rockies' Chad Kuhl would fit the bill as a second-half upgrade. Stability wise, there's none better. Kuhl has had an ERA between 4.20 and 4.82 every year of his career.

His 2022 in Colorado has been no different, with an ERA of 4.48, his ERA+ is just 104 due to the atmosphere at Coors Field. Kuhl would come rather cheap with just two months remaining on his deal.

But buyer beware! He has had an ERA of 9.00 in 17 July innings. After a heavier first-half workload than he has been accustomed to, Kuhl could falter in the second half.

Fellow NL West basement dwellers, the Arizona Diamondbacks, could deal the Phillies Zach Davies, who has had an excellent 2022. Like Kuhl his ERA+ hovers just above 100 and his ERA sits at 3.94. Over 80 innings, Davies has been a very solid mid-rotation pitcher, but he has his complications too. 

Davies has sat on the IL since late-June with shoulder inflammation. He's getting closer to a return, and as of June 22 he was throwing bullpen sessions according to CBS Sports. He would probably start August on the IL.

Zach Davies faces the Cincinnati Reds in Arizona :: © Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Both Kuhl and Davies would come very cheap, neither costing more than an individual top 5-10 system prospect. Someone like Jhailyn Ortiz, Erik Miller or Francisco Morales would get the deal consummated.

Finally, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ José Quintana is a player on every contender's radar. Like Kuhl and Davies, he only has two months left on his contract, and his 3.70 ERA in 19 starts is rather alluring. He's been quite consistent throughout the season and his career, sporting a 3.83 ERA since his 2012 debut.

Quintana will have his final showcase on July 29 in Pittsburgh facing the Phillies. You can bet that Philadelphia won't be the only club with scouts in attendance. 

His price range will fall somewhere in between the Wood/Keller tier and the Kuhl/Davies tier. Depending on the bidding war that emerges, Quintana shouldn't cost more than a player like Johan Rojas at absolute maximum, and a Miller/Ortiz/Morales-plus package at minimum.

The Phillies will make an upgrade to their rotation before August 2, that much is clear. But the field is still wide open.

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