It's Not Time to Panic About Wheeler Just Yet

The Philadelphia Phillies' ace is off to a rocky start, but it's not something to be too concerned about... yet.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Zack Wheeler, who is typically sharp as a tack every fifth day, has looked noticeably dull from the get-go in 2022. After a Cy-Young-worthy 2021 season, The Philadelphia Phillies' ace is off to a suboptimal start, and the flaws have been glaringly distinct.

Wheeler's velocity, typically a calling card of his, is sitting between two and three miles-per-hour lower than his average in 2021. His command, again, usually pin-point, has all but evaporated.

Things like this don't just happen overnight–what could possibly be the reason for these untimely issues?

Lest we forget, Zack Wheeler was considered mildly injury-prone before his time with Philadelphia. Those injuries prevented Wheeler from ever exceeding over 200 innings pitched in a single season.

That is, until last season, where Wheeler was the hardest-worked pitcher in baseball, tossing a league-leading 213.1 innings–an especially difficult feat when you consider he'd only thrown 71.0 innings the year prior thanks to a pandemic-shortened 2021.

Those circumstances were then combined with the unfortunate timing of the MLB Lockout, where players were unable to communicate with team training staff.

Post-lockout, players were faced with a shortened spring training, during which Zack Wheeler was never able to face actual Major League bats, instead relegated to the backfields where he pitched simulated games against Phillies minor leaguers.

On top of all of this, Wheeler was said to be dealing with what was labeled as right shoulder soreness, and would be started slow in 2022.

All of these factors have compounded into the Zack Wheeler you see before you today.

It certainly makes sense that, after posting a career high in innings, (and frankly a career season in general) there would be some hangover into the following season. This is a common theme in the game of baseball. Sophomore slumps, Postseason hangover–after momentous occurrences, a game based around longevity tends to bite back.

This 'slow start' trend has become a prevalent issue among other Phillies starting pitchers who were considered "behind," as well.

Ranger Suárez, who dealt with visa issues this offseason, only recently managed to right the course of his season. He tossed 4.2 solid innings against the Milwaukee Brewers Friday night, but his command still hasn't fully returned to its former sharpness. Nevertheless, Suárez re-found his velocity, as he gunned 94 miles-per-hour with his famous sinker in his final inning of work.

Zach Eflin, who was recovering from knee surgery in the offseason, has also struggled to find his footing early on–especially command-wise.

This issue isn't just Phillies-centric either, it is widespread among some of the Major Leagues most prominent starters:

Zack Wheeler	Robbie Ray	Shane Bieber	Sonny Gray
2021: 97.3 mph	2021: 94.6 mph	2021: 92.9 mph	2021: 92.6 mph
2022: 94.9 mph	2022: 92.9 mph	2022: 91.3 mph	2022: 91.3 mph

Robbie Ray stands out among this table as the most in-line comparison to Wheeler. Ray, the reigning American League Cy Young award winner, tossed 193.1 innings in 2021, a career high. His average velocity is down a near two full clicks, and his command, like Wheeler's, has been sporadic.

It is unfortunate that fans are going to have to watch some of their favorite pitchers struggle through what is, essentially, a high-stakes spring training–but this is the hand they were dealt.

Wheeler's next start comes Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers. Regardless of whether or not he figures things out tonight, it is important to remember that this same pitcher has combined for a 2.82 ERA in a Phillies uniform across 284.1 innings. He at least deserves the grace to take some time to figure things out.

It may not be tonight, it may not be next week, but Zack Wheeler has earned bona fide ace status. It stands to reason that he'll find his way back there at some point during the 2022 season.

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