How the Braves' NLDS Rotation Will Shape the Phillies' Destiny

The Atlanta Braves have yet to decide if Spencer Strider or Charlie Morton will face the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3.

Leo Morgenstern | Oct 13, 2022

How the Braves' NLDS Rotation Will Shape the Phillies' Destiny /

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Atlanta Braves Manager Brian Snitker has a big decision to make. There will be at least two more games of the National League Division Series, and he must determine which of his starting pitchers will take the mound for each game.

Spencer Strider had a phenomenal rookie season, posting a 2.67 ERA in 131.2 IP. Unfortunately for Atlanta, an oblique injury has kept him off the mound for nearly a month—he has not seen MLB action since Sept. 18.

Then there is Charlie Morton, a typically reliable veteran who struggled down the stretch, posting a 6.23 ERA and 5.92 FIP in his final five starts.

The last time the Phillies faced Morton, they chased him out in the middle of the fifth inning after scoring their sixth run of the ballgame. Meanwhile, the last time they faced Strider, he held them to one run in six innings, striking out 10.

Clearly, the Braves have no concerns about either pitcher—they signed both of them to eight-figure contract extensions over the past two weeks—but they will have to decide which of them they'd like to use in which game. There is no doubt it has been a difficult choice for Snitker, who still seems to be mulling over his options.

For the Philadelphia Phillies' sake, it is just as hard to say who they would rather face on which day. If they face Morton in Game 3, with Aaron Nola on the hill, they will have the upper hand in that contest. However, the very next day, they would be at quite a disadvantage, with Strider going up against one of Bailey Falter, Noah Syndergaard, or Kyle Gibson.

Aaron Nola will take the hill for the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of the NLDS. — Aaron Nola will take the hill for the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of the NLDS / © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

If, on the other hand, they face Strider in Game 3 and Morton in Game 4, the Phillies would find themselves at a slight disadvantage in both games. Nola vs. Strider and Morton vs. Falter/Syndergaard/Gibson could both be relatively even matchups, but the Braves still have the stronger defense and bullpen.

The first scenario guarantees Philadelphia a major advantage in one of the games, but a major disadvantage in the other. The second scenario puts the Phillies at a disadvantage in both games, but it is a relatively small one, all things considered. There are pros and cons on either side.

Ultimately, however, they want to be in the best possible position to win every day. In the postseason, a team cannot afford to punt one game in hopes of winning another, because no wins are ever guaranteed. For such a short series, you have to distribute your resources as evenly as possible.

Therefore, Philadelphia should hope to see Strider in Game 3 and Morton in Game 4, rather than the other way around.

Obviously, the Phillies do not actually get to make this choice. It's up to the Braves, and the responsibility for the decision lies in Brian Snitker's hands. Luckily for Philadelphia, he should be just as inclined to distribute his resources evenly.

While Snitker has yet to make the call, he would be smart to tap Strider for Friday and Morton for Saturday. It would be what's best for the Braves, and, as counterintuitive as it sounds, it would be what's best for the Phillies as well.

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Published Oct 13, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.