How the Philadelphia Phillies Cornered the Market With Harper's and Turner's Contracts

The Philadelphia Phillies cornered the free agent market, handing out long-term, low-AAV deals to Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, here's how their strategy works.

$52.65 million.

That's what the Philadelphia Phillies will be paying a 38-year-old Bryce Harper and a 38-year-old Trea Turner in 2031.

If that scares you, it should. 

$52 million is a lot of money to have locked up between two stars nearing the age of 40. The New York Mets already have $86 million locked up between 38-year-old Max Scherzer and soon to be 40-year-old Justin Verlander.

But we all know that both Scherzer and Verlander are still productive at their advanced ages. We don't know how well Harper's back and elbow will hold up at 38, and we don't know how well Turner will age without his speed. 

Will either be productive players at that point in their careers?

More importantly, will it matter if both decline at that age?

The former is impossible to answer. No one knows what the baseball world will look like in a decade, but we do have a better idea of what the financial world will look like.

We know exactly how much the Phillies will be paying Turner and Harper in 2031, and we have a decent idea of how much the U.S. dollar will be worth at that time.

Inflation has skyrocketed in the last several years, which is why the Phillies additions of Harper and Turner on long-term deals is so savvy. They're essentially paying the duo deferred money while retaining their services.

Since 2018, U.S. inflation rate has increased at an average of 3.6% per year according to IMF. Taking a far more conservative estimate of 2.5% per year over the next decade — a split between the Federal Reserve target of 2% and the average of the last five years — we can estimate just how much Harper and Turner's contracts will be worth by the end of the deal.

According to the average rate of 2.5% inflation, Turner's $27.27 million AAV will only be worth $20.78 million by 2033, the final year of his deal. Harper's $25.38 million AAV will be worth only $20.32 million in 2022 money by 2031 at the end of his deal.

So instead of considering paying Harper and Turner a collective $52.65 million in 2031, it'd be more accurate to suggest the Phillies will be paying the duo only about $42 million by then.

These deals the Phillies have offered seem much larger due to their length, but that is in fact what puts Philadelphia ahead of their competition.

The relatively low AAV means the Phillies have room to build around their stars at the present, and the length means that the value of the deal will decrease, as inflation increases with time.

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2. How Mike Trout Will Join the Phillies
3. Could Bryce Harper's Favorite MLB Player Join the Philadelphia Phillies Next Season?
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9. How the Phillie Phanatic Came to be America's Favorite Sports Mascot
10. Picking the Phillies' All-Time Single Season Lineup

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