José Alvarado Has Been the Best Reliever in the NL Down the Stretch

For the past two months, José Alvarado has been the very best reliever in the National League as the Phillies chase down a postseason berth.

Leo Morgenstern | Sep 27, 2022

José Alvarado Has Been the Best Reliever in the NL Down the Stretch /

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Philadelphia Phillies

José Alvarado has been phenomenal for the Philadelphia Phillies as of late. If you've been keeping up with Inside the Phillies, that shouldn't come as too much of a surprise.

We've already talked about him as, perhaps, the best reliever in the Phillies bullpen. We've considered that he might, in fact, be the best left-handed reliever in baseball. And as Alvarado continues to impress, it might be time to go another step further: is the 27-year-old southpaw becoming one of the best relievers in the National League?

It's too soon to rank Alvarado among the likes of Edwin Díaz and Devin Williams right away. But over the past two months of baseball, he has been as dominant as either of them—if not better. It will take more than a couple months for Alvarado to truly prove himself, but he's off to a terrific start, and it's time begin having these conversations. Alvarado is the real deal.

Alvarado pop offs are unmatched pic.twitter.com/jfcf7WgdZb
— Absolutely Hammered (@ah_pod) September 23, 2022

Since returning from a minor league assignment on June 12, Alvarado has a 1.77 ERA and 1.35 FIP in 35.2 innings pitched. He has struck out 59 batters and allowed just one home run.

Over the past two months, he has been even better. In 20.2 IP since July 29, Alvarado has allowed just two earned runs for an ERA of 0.87. His has struck out 32 batters and walked just five. He has not allowed a single baserunner in 12 of his 22 appearances. Dominant doesn't even begin to cover it.

Alvarado's earned run average ranks fourth among qualified NL relievers over the past two months. His FIP ranks fourth too, while his xFIP and SIERA both rank first. He is the only National League reliever to rank in the top five by all four metrics.

Alvarado has the third highest strikeout rate in that time, and he has kept his walk rate in check. His strikeout rate minus walk rate (K-BB%), therefore, is the best in the league. His average fastball velocity, per Pitch Info, has also been the very best among NL relievers.

If all those stats aren't enough to convince you, just take a look at this.

Absolutely nasty.

As if all that wasn't enough, Alvarado seems to be improving as the season winds down. Since the start of August, he has a 0.48 ERA and 30 K in 18.2 IP. Since the start of September, he has not allowed a single run. He has given up just one hit and two walks in that time.

In his latest appearance, he threw what was likely his fastest pitch all season at 103 mph. He has been the best reliever in the league for two months and counting, and it appears he's only getting stronger. At the rate he's going, he'll be downright unhittable come October.

If the Phillies make the postseason in 2022, Alvarado is going to be pitching some high-leverage innings. The team will be counting on him to shut down a dangerous lineup in the Wild Card round—be it Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado of the St. Louis Cardinals or Austin Riley and Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Atlanta Braves.

It won't be an easy task, but with the way he's been pitching lately, the best reliever in the National League should be more than up for the challenge.

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Published Sep 27, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.