How Does Verlander's Deal With the Mets Impact the Philadelphia Phillies?

Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander has inked a deal with the New York Mets, the Philadelphia Phillies most hated rival.

The New York Mets are building a Death Star. And like both Death Stars, this one has a major weakness.

The reported signing of Justin Verlander doesn't exactly mark a turning point for the Mets, owner Steve Cohen has already made his point that he's willing to spend indiscriminately. But Verlander does indicate that the Mets still intend to compete at the top of the National League in 2022, and they'll do so as an aged ballclub.

The top three starters in their rotation are Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco. They will have an average age of 38 by Opening Day 2023. 

In a game that consistently trends towards higher velocity and more stress on the arm, it's hard to believe all three will be healthy the whole season. The Mets found the truth of that when Scherzer missed nearly 10 starts in 2022 and Jacob deGrom missed two-thirds of the season entirely.

Given MLB's new balanced scheduling, the Philadelphia Phillies will play the Mets only 13 times, instead of the usual 19. Seven of those games will come in the last week of the season.

How likely is it that all three big arms will be healthy at the end of 162 games?

Of course, crazier things have happened than all three remaining in the rotation for 162 games, but Scherzer hasn't pitched a full season since 2018, the same is true of Carrasco. 

Verlander hasn't oft been injured ever in his career, aside from the Tommy John surgery which sidelined him in 2020 and 2021. But the two-time World Champion and three-time Cy Young Award winner has nearly 3200 innings on his arm. At age-40, its hard to believe he won't experience some regression from 2022, after all, his FIP was 74 points higher than his ERA.

That's all without mentioning the way this Phillies squad sees Verlander. They rocked him for six earned runs and six walks in 10.0 postseason innings. The team OPS against him was .773, and that's without a huge level of luck. Their team BABIP was only .321.

If he remains healthy, the Phillies may face him several times in big games toward the end of the season.

Sure, the Mets have assembled a dominant rotation, albeit top-heavy, and they may not be done. But their plan has holes.

They lack depth and are prone to injury. Verlander will be 41 years old in the final guaranteed year of his deal, 42 if his third-year option vests. It's hard to see him being worth $43 million a year at age 41 and 42.

The same is true of Scherzer, who will also cost Cohen $43 million in 2023. If everything goes right for the Mets, they have a chance to take the National League by storm, but it feels as if the sands of time are slipping through their grasp.

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