Aaron Nola Must Remain Vigilant Throughout the Count Against Braves

Philadelphia Phillies' ace Aaron Nola can't afford to let his guard down against the Atlanta Braves, even after a first-pitch strike.

Leo Morgenstern | Oct 14, 2022

Aaron Nola Must Remain Vigilant Throughout the Count Against Braves /

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Philadelphia Phillies

Over his past two starts, Aaron Nola has dispelled the narrative that he is not a "big game" pitcher. Even so, the big games just keep coming for the 29-year-old right-hander, and the Philadelphia Phillies will be counting on him to come through once again in Friday afternoon's contest against the Atlanta Braves.

Game 3 is not technically a must-win game for the Phillies, as the NLDS is currently tied at 1-1. That being the case, Philadelphia's chances of taking the series will plummet if they do not win with Nola on the bump.

Nola had a phenomenal 2022 season, making 32 starts and averaging more than 6.1 IP per outing. He posted a 3.25 ERA, and according to many of the advanced metrics, this past year was the very best of his career. Most impressively, he struck out 235 batters while walking only 29, setting a new franchise record for K/BB in a single season.

Aaron Nola was sensation against the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLWCS. / © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Nola's low walk rate will come in handy against Atlanta, a team that doesn't earn many free passes as it is. Their 7.7% regular season walk rate ranked 11th in the National League and last among all six playoff teams. A hit-by-pitch follow by a walk is what ultimately killed the Phillies on Wednesday evening, so they would surely like to avoid issuing any more free bases to the Braves in Game 3.

One of the main reasons Nola walked so few batters in 2022 was because he threw more than 70% of his first pitches for strikes. That meant that far more often than not, he was starting plate appearances ahead in the count, which tends to work in a pitcher's favor. If he keeps up that approach, it should help him to avoid walking any Braves hitters.

However, when it comes to this particular opponent, Nola is going to need more than just first pitch strikes to get the job done. Atlanta has been one of the best teams in baseball this season through 0-1 counts. They have done an excellent job of bouncing back from first pitch strikes.

Braves hitters have gone on to score 106 runs after starting a plate appearance down in the count. That's 13.4% of their total runs this season. Both of those numbers lead the National League.

It makes sense why this would be the case. Because Atlanta's offense doesn't rely so heavily on walks, they aren't nearly so disadvantaged by an 0-1 count. Instead, their biggest strength has been power, and extra-base hits are less likely to be impacted by a first pitch strike.

To make matters worse for Nola, the Braves have actually been particularly good at hitting for power through an 0-1 count. Not only do they lead MLB in extra-base hits after a first-pitch strike, but they lead the sport in the percentage of their extra-base hits that came after a first-pitch strike too. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Michael Harris II have been especially good in this regard.

Nola, on the other hand, hasn't been the best at shutting down power after a first pitch strike. Opponents have hit the ball slightly harder against him after an 0-1 count, and 46% of extra-base hits he has allowed have come after a first pitch strike. That's about three points higher than league average.

Therefore, Nola must be extra careful against the Braves. His best weapon – the first-pitch strike – won't be enough to neutralize this potent lineup. Thankfully for the Phillies, that's not the only move in his playbook. Aaron Nola is more than capable of shutting down Atlanta's offense as long as he remains vigilant throughout the count.

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Published Oct 14, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.