Aaron Nola Rediscovered His Sinker, and it's Paying Off Big Time

Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and his excellent sinker is a major reason why.

Leo Morgenstern | Jul 20, 2022

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Philadelphia Phillies

Fans across Philadelphia can breathe a sigh of relief with each quality start Aaron Nola throws, as he is slowly but surely putting his disappointing 2021 season behind him.

Nola is off to an incredible start to the 2022 season. The Philadelphia Phillies starter has thrown 126.2 innings with a 3.13 ERA. By most metrics, he has been one of the very best pitchers in the National League.

Nola finished 2021 with a 4.63 ERA. The Phillies lost more of his starts than they won. His underlying numbers were still strong, and there were times when he looked as dominant as ever, but he struggled mightily with men on base, and he failed to get out of the sixth inning in more than half his starts.

In 2022, Nola has righted the ship. He is no longer struggling the way he was last year, and according to several statistics, he is having the best season of his career. So what is he doing differently?

Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto have a meeting on the mound. — Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto have a meeting on the mound / © Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest change Nola has made to his repertoire is that he is throwing his sinker far more often than he was last season. He has thrown fewer four-seam fastballs, fewer changeups, and slightly fewer curveballs, in their stead his sinker has become a more important part of his pitch mix.

In particular, he is using the pitch more frequently against right-hander batters. His sinker use against lefties has gone up from 15.2% in 2021 to 18.8% in 2022, while his sinker use against righties has gone up from 13% last season to 21.4% this year.

Nola is no stranger to the sinker, and it has played a key role in his repertoire in years past. He threw more than 20% of his pitches for sinkers in both 2020 and 2017. In 2016, he was primarily a sinker-baller, using the pitch more than 40% of the time.

In 2020 he used the pitch more often against righties, while in 2017 he favored it against lefties. In 2016, he deployed the sinker equally against all opponents. It's clearly a pitch he likes to tinker with, and his confidence in it wavers.

In 2021, his faith in the sinker was low. Early in the season, he told Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that the pitch had not "been feeling as good as the four-seam as of late.”

The numbers back up Nola's feelings. In 2021, his sinker had a below-average run value according to Baseball Savant. It ranked in the 42nd percentile in the sport.

This year, however, it's a different story. The run value on his sinker is well above average, and it ranks in the 82nd percentile. That's a major improvement.

Pitch Info, another source that evaluates pitches, is similarly bullish on Nola's sinker. By Pitch Info Pitch Value, Nola has the eighth-best sinker amongst qualified starting pitchers this season.

In particular, Nola's sinker has excelled as a put-away pitch, it has done very well in getting the third strike.

Nola has recorded a strikeout in 28.4% of the two-strike counts in which he has thrown his sinker this season. That's better than for any other of his other pitches, including his curveball, which was always been his best put-away pitch in years past.

Aaron Nola's 2-2 sinker to William Contreras in the seventh. Contreras so mad he snapped his bat. pic.twitter.com/iVMNwL5eUB
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) May 27, 2022

Nola's renewed confidence in his sinker is a great sign that he can maintain his excellent performance for the rest of the season and potentially finish with his most impressive numbers since his 2018 Cy Young finalist campaign.

Location Is Everything

Nola has been having more success locating his sinker this year, which has made a big difference. The two heat maps below visualize Nola's sinker location in 2021 and 2022.

Last season, Nola was primarily throwing his sinker up and inside the strike zone. This year, while he has still thrown plenty of sinkers in that same spot, he is also throwing the pitch lower and outside the zone much more often.

Heat maps visualizing Aaron Nola's sinker in 2021 (left) and 2022 (right). / via Baseball Savant

These two heat maps look pretty different, but interestingly enough, the heat map for Nola's sinker in 2022 is actually very similar to the heat map for his sinker last season when he was pitching with the bases empty.

Chad Young of Pitcher List took a look at Nola's pitch location last season, and found that with no runners on base, Nola was throwing his sinker lower in the zone and more outside. With runners on, his sinker was more likely to end up higher and well within the zone.

In 2021, Nola excelled with the bases empty but struggled with runners on. With no men on base, he had a 2.80 FIP and 9.80 K/BB. With runners on, his FIP jumped to 4.32 while his K/BB fell to 3.17.

Thus it is a very good sign that his sinker from this season looks a lot like his sinker from last season with the bases empty.

Indeed, Nola has been able to maintain his composure with men on base this year, and the results have been very encouraging. He has a 3.01 FIP and 8.00 K/BB with runners on, nearly as good as his 2.71 FIP and 8.82 K/BB with the bases empty.

Aaron Nola had an excellent first half for the Philadelphia Phillies. — Aaron Nola had an excellent first half for the Philadelphia Phillies / © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Right Pitch at the Right Time

Nola is using his sinker more frequently against all batters, but the pitch has become a particular weapon for him against right-handers.

His sinker location against lefties this season is similar to what it was last year, but against righties, his sinker command has been much more precise. These heat maps show Nola's sinker location against right-handed batters in 2021 and in 2022, and it's apparent he made some meaningful changes.

Aaron Nola's sinker location against right-handed batters in 2021 (left) and 2022 (right). — Aaron Nola's sinker location against right-handed batters in 2021 (left) and 2022 (right) / via Baseball Savant

In 2021, Nola's sinker was all over the place against right-handed batters. This year, his location on the sinker has been more consistent, and in an area where the pitch has thrived.

Thanks to his killer put-away sinker, Nola has been better than ever against right-handed batters. His 15.80 K/BB against righties is nearly twice as high as the next best NL pitcher and is easily the best of Nola's career.

Hook, Line, and Sinker

Nola is locating his sinker much better than he was last season, particularly against right-handed batters and with runners on base. With a renewed feel for the pitch, he has been comfortable throwing it more often, and it has become one of the best pitches in his arsenal.

If Nola keeps firing with his sinker, he's going to remain one of the very best pitchers in baseball.

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Published Jul 20, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.