The Good, Bad, and Ugly of the Phillies Bullpen

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen has been surprisingly good this year according to some metrics, but downright awful according to others.

Leo Morgenstern | Jun 11, 2022

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Philadelphia Phillies

How good has the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen been this year?

Well, it really depends how you look at it. Different statistics can paint very different pictures.

By earned run average (ERA), Phillies relievers rank sixteenth in Major League Baseball — comfortably middle of the pack. Their win-loss record is perfectly even (11-11).

According to Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), Philadelphia’s relief corps ranks tenth overall, putting them in the top third of MLB bullpens. Their strikeout rate (K/9) ranks fourth in baseball, while their home run rate (HR/9) ranks seventh.

They have blown just five saves all year, which is tied for fewest in the National League and fourth-fewest in baseball.

By FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) they rank sixth in the NL and eleventh in baseball.

Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA), however, has the Phillies ranked twentieth — close to the bottom third of the league. They are twenty-fifth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB), and they have allowed the fifth highest percentage of hard hit balls (per Statcast).

Finally, Win Probability Added (WPA) ranks the Phillies as the very worst bullpen in baseball. Their cumulative WPA is -3.83, while the next worst National League team (Miami) sits at -2.97, almost a full win better.

Even by Context Neutral Wins (WPA/LI), a version of WPA which is adjusted for situational leverage, Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks twenty-sixth in baseball and worst in the National League.

They have also been the least clutch group of relievers in the game, according to FanGraphs. This means they have performed much worse in higher leverage situations than they have in lower leverage situations.

All this to say, the Phillies bullpen is a bit of an enigma. Depending on what statistics you prefer to look at, there is a case to be made that they have been average, above average, below average, or absolutely terrible.

That may sound confusing, but for those who have watched this bullpen night after night, it sounds just about right. This crop of relievers can blow the game one day, then pitch four scoreless innings the next.

Thus, the truth about their true talent level most likely lies somewhere in the middle. Philadelphia has a better bullpen this season than they have in years past, but their relief pitching is certainly no strength.

The biggest problem has been how terribly they have performed when it matters most. That can partly be attributed to poor bullpen management — Seranthony Domínguez and Connor Brogdon need to be used in more high leverage situations — and partly to bad luck. That said, the individual relief pitchers cannot be absolved of all blame. It’s part of a reliever’s job to be able to perform in close spots, and thus far many of the Phillies’ relievers have let them down in such situations.

Philadelphia Phillies reliever Connor Brogdon has been pitching very well lately. — Philadelphia Phillies reliever Connor Brogdon has been pitching very well lately

So what’s the verdict? Well, one can rest assured the bullpen is better this year than it was last year, and if Rob Thomson handles his relievers better than Joe Girardi did, you can expect them to perform even better. However, if the bullpen is going to be a strength for this Phillies team, Dave Dombrowski is going to have to make some additions — with an emphasis on finding guys who can pitch well even in the most stressful of situations.

This group is no “dumpster fire” (as the Diamondbacks TV broadcast booth called them Friday night), but they’re certainly not without their flaws. It is still the Phillies bullpen, after all.

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Published Jun 11, 2022

LEO MORGENSTERN

Leo Morgenstern is a writer and editor for Inside the Phillies. He also writes for FanGraphs and Just Baseball, and his work has appeared on Pitcher List and Baseball Prospectus. He previously covered the Phillies for SB Nation's The Good Phight. You can follow him on Twitter @morgensternmlb.