Phillies to Face New Qualifying Offer Penalties This Offseason

The Philadelphia Phillies will face harsher penalties this winter if they sign a free agent who rejected the qualifying offer, but they shouldn't let that hold them back.

The Philadelphia Phillies know how it feels to lose a draft pick. They have lost five picks in the last five years for signing free agents who received the qualifying offer. In 2017-18, it was Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta. Then it was Bryce Harper, and the year after that it was Zack Wheeler. They saved their second-round draft pick in 2021 when they re-signed J.T. Realmuto, their own QO free agent, but they lost it again this past season by nabbing Nick Castellanos. 

In 2023, however, the Phillies could be facing harsher penalties than ever before. Teams that exceed the luxury tax are subject to stricter penalties for signing free agents who reject the qualifying offer. Per the "Qualifying Offer" definition on MLB's official website:

A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well.

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MLB.com

Therefore, if the Phillies sign one of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, or Dansby Swanson this winter (or any of the other 11 players who rejected the QO), they will lose not only their second-round pick, but their fifth-round selection as well. They'll also forfeit an additional $500,000 in international bonus pool money. This certainly shouldn't prevent Dave Dombrowski from pursuing the best free agents on the market, but it will be worth remembering – especially when the international signing period and the 2023 Draft roll around. 

Carlos Correa is the one star shortstop on this year's free agent market who did not receive a qualifying offer. He was ineligible to receive the QO, having already rejected one last offseason. 

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