Is it Time to Put Schwarber Back in the Lead-Off Spot?

Kyle Schwarber has slashed just .164/.300/.388 since arriving with the Philadelphia Phillies. When is it time to ask more of the $80 million man?

Ben Silver | Apr 30, 2022

It's been since the days of Jimmy Rollins that the Philadelphia Phillies have had a consistent lead-off hitter, and even then one could argue that the three-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glover and MVP winner was never exactly suited to lead off.

Phillies president Dave Dombrowski tried to remedy that problem this winter. Handing former-Boston Red Sox Kyle Schwarber a four-year/$80 million contract just days after the MLB lockout concluded, in the hope of solving the Phillies age-old lead-off problem.

But it's all been downhill since Kyle Schwarber's first at-bat as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies.

On April 15, the slugger's OPS bottomed out after a loss to the Miami Marlins, his slash line reaching .094/.194/.219. That would also be his final game batting from the lead-off spot.

Since then the Phillies have slotted a myriad of hitters at the top of the lineup, but none have managed to eclipse the production that Rollins once provided leading off.

Rollins was an aggressive hitter, sporting a career 3.72 pit/PA. That translated to a relatively low on-base percentage. From 2009 through 2014, his last six years as a Phillie, Rollins' OBP was just .318, that's lower than even Odúbel Herrera's career .323 OBP out of the lead-off spot.

Like his former lead-off counterpart, Herrera is also far too aggressive a hitter to feel comfortable at the top of the lineup. His career pit/PA is 3.94, MLB average over that period is 3.89.

Schwarber's career pit/PA is 4.27, and since joining the Phillies it's all the way up to 4.65. His approach is perfectly suited to the lead-off spot, yet he hasn't succeeded batting at the top of Phillies manager Joe Girardi's lineups.

It seems as if Schwarber will stay away from the one-spot for some time. Girardi has pegged Jean Segura as his lead-off hitter, preferring a more traditional top-of-the-lineup hitter.

But Segura's pit/PA is also pitifully low, 3.39 in 2022, with a .329 career OBP. Batting first this year, Segura has slashed just .211/.268/.237. As much as Girardi may like him batting lead-off, he can't deny that the results haven't been there for Segura.

So when would it be time to put Schwarber back at the top of the lineup?

Right now.

Since that game on April 15 when Schwarber bottomed out, he's slashed .229/.386/.543. The player best suited to the lead-off spot should be one who gets on-base, works the count and benefits from seeing more at-bats.

The lead-off spot on average gets 18 more plate appearances than the spot below it over the course of the season. Naturally, a team wants their best hitters to appear more often.

Even though Schwarber's year-to-date stats aren't pretty, he's already shown what the Phillies can expect of him. To this point, Schwarber has posted a walk-rate of 15.0%, well above his career numbers. His home-run rate is just 0.9% below his career-average and his strikeout-rate 3.4% above his career-average.

The only thing holding him back right now is a BABIP of .184, a full .088 below his career-rate. Bad-luck has been Schwarber's bane in 2022, and there's no reason that shouldn't end tonight.

All-star level Schwarber has arrived, you just haven't noticed.

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Published Apr 30, 2022

BEN SILVER

Ben Silver is deputy editor for Inside the Phillies. A graduate of Boston University, Ben formerly covered the Phillies for PhilliesNation.com. Follow him on Twittter @BenHSilver.