Philadelphia Phillies Will Head to San Diego as the Underdogs Once Again

World Series odds have been updated, and most sources give the San Diego Padres a slight edge over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Oct 16, 2022 3:51 PM EDT

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Philadelphia Phillies

Late on Saturday night, long after the Philadelphia Phillies had beaten the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS, the San Diego Padres earned a 5-3 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers, solidifying themselves as Philadelphia's opponent for the next round of the postseason.

Once LA was officially eliminated, several sources updated their World Series odds calculations. FanGraphs gives the Phillies a 48.6% chance of winning the NLCS, and therefore the Padres have the slight edge with a 51.4% chance to take the series.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has Philadelphia's chances of advancing to the World Series at 48% – marginally worse odds than from FanGraphs. Regardless, both sources see the Phillies as the slightest of underdogs.

Philadelphia and San Diego are quite evenly matched on the field, and so the Phillies' underdog status is most likely because they do not have home field advantage. Four of the potential seven games in the series are scheduled to take place at Petco Park, where the Padres went 44-37 this season. If Philadelphia can win one of the first two games in San Diego, the odds could swing in their favor.

The Philadelphia Phillies celebrate their NLDS win over the Atlanta Braves.
© Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

While the odds aren't quite in Philadelphia's favor, they do demonstrate just how far this team has come. When the regular season ended, FanGraphs gave the Phillies just a 25.3% chance of making the NLCS and an 11.5% chance of making the World Series.

Those odds are a whole lot higher today. And if the team keep playing this well? Don't be surprised to see those odds reach the triple digits.